{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14d15aea-ff04-4d39-bcfa-00237c0a2fb1", "symbol": "00685L", "name": "Capital Taiex Daily Leveraged 2X ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.487, "architecture_energy": 88.208, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.663, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.11, "rotation_up": 8.38, "upward_expansion": 21.8, "deceleration": 37.07, "rotation_down": 81.1, "downward_expansion": 97.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.959333, 42.163, 119.905845, 141.967075 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.01, "trend_reference": 159.746708, "distance_from_trend": -0.931078, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 93.395329, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.882114, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -94.099154, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.930558, "excess_performance": -1.30987, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.931078, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051826, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.882114, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -2.841916, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.940992, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.365378, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.930558, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.368732, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1427424812, "relative_activity": 2.636544, "balance": 0.368732, "dry_up": 3.886945, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 3.120784, "annualized_volatility": 4.599227, "from_high_reference": -0.964213, "from_low_reference": 0.249716 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 159.746708, "fair_value_reference": 93.395329, "structural_low": 8.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.096366, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.036979, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.320646, "worst_return": -0.10511, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.030471, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.023939, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.158919, "worst_return": -0.115167, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.316095, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.178208, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.572129, "worst_return": -0.146753, "sufficient": false }, 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"close": 10.54, "volume": 2471258930, "typical_volume": 245384741.0, "trend": 171.322042, "fair_value": 94.156803, "relative_strength": -94.405273, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.237976, "energy": 73.978037, "activity_lines": [ 31.294833, 117.031432, 166.406863, 172.293556 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.95, "volume": 1425840749, "typical_volume": 316154020.95, "trend": 167.692042, "fair_value": 93.900393, "relative_strength": -94.233375, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.567479, "energy": 88.613206, "activity_lines": [ 11.357417, 87.737591, 150.154666, 161.946973 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.83, "volume": 3093042726, "typical_volume": 470322146.35, "trend": 163.836375, "fair_value": 93.652957, "relative_strength": -94.137962, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.100384, "energy": 89.388526, "activity_lines": [ 11.1, 62.68375, 134.651994, 151.826841 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.01, "volume": 1427424812, "typical_volume": 541399964.75, "trend": 159.746708, "fair_value": 93.395329, "relative_strength": -94.099154, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.487399, "energy": 88.20823, "activity_lines": [ 10.959333, 42.163, 119.905845, 141.967075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }