{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14d96c02-61f9-4745-b240-9c34fd024c44", "symbol": "7200", "name": "CSOP Leveraged and Inverse Series - CSOP Hang Seng Index Daily (2x) Leveraged Product", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 53.501, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -8.153, "architecture_energy": 24.574, "architecture_maturity": 74.109, "architecture_confidence": 61.681, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.31, "rotation_up": 45.87, "upward_expansion": 27.71, "deceleration": 41.25, "rotation_down": 16.74, "downward_expansion": 50.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.676333, 5.409218, 5.462986, 5.559445 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.82, "trend_reference": 5.7404, "distance_from_trend": 0.013867, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.479122, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.299362, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.804024, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.065811, "excess_performance": -0.032229, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013867, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042282, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.299362, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094963, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.00804, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015976, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.065811, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.745833, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 173454000, "relative_activity": 0.776441, "balance": 0.745833, "dry_up": 1.044191, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070671, "annualized_volatility": 0.315289, "from_high_reference": -0.168571, "from_low_reference": 0.300849 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.7404, "fair_value_reference": 4.479122, "structural_low": 4.474, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.037982, "positive_rate": 0.424242, "directional_follow_through": 0.575758, "median_excess_return": -0.016676, "regime_survival": 0.878788, "best_return": 0.370455, "worst_return": -0.313559, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.125181, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -0.063919, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.710356, "worst_return": -0.376765, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.181009, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.088141, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.19788, "worst_return": -0.316095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.919522, "energy": 78.876563, "activity_lines": [ 4.947667, 5.162, 5.424405, 5.592226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.31, "volume": 307718800, "typical_volume": 239485369.35, "trend": 5.774067, "fair_value": 4.449045, "relative_strength": -5.445064, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.838747, "energy": 55.275836, "activity_lines": [ 5.053867, 5.150055, 5.398586, 5.560953 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.505, "volume": 217037586, "typical_volume": 228765416.6, "trend": 5.7589, "fair_value": 4.456282, "relative_strength": -3.457386, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.341895, "energy": 28.546211, "activity_lines": [ 5.230733, 5.187745, 5.39579, 5.543594 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.935, "volume": 234863100, "typical_volume": 227473689.6, "trend": 5.7504, "fair_value": 4.467417, "relative_strength": 0.321045, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.651942, "energy": 18.428158, "activity_lines": [ 5.519267, 5.310618, 5.435448, 5.554955 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.82, "volume": 173454000, "typical_volume": 223396361.9, "trend": 5.7404, "fair_value": 4.479122, "relative_strength": -0.804024, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.153497, "energy": 24.57439, "activity_lines": [ 5.676333, 5.409218, 5.462986, 5.559445 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }