{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14daeffc-831b-4dc9-a544-e0bb9e75f81e", "symbol": "TECI", "name": "TD Global Technology Innovators Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.218, "architecture_energy": 28.539, "architecture_maturity": 71.499, "architecture_confidence": 95.511, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.08, "rotation_up": 23.92, "upward_expansion": 57.56, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 31.75, "downward_expansion": 21.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.391333, 15.694727, 15.439143, 14.676817 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15.82, "trend_reference": 13.682333, "distance_from_trend": 0.156236, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.615892, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.645193, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 12.463626, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.397527, "excess_performance": 0.277105, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.156236, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.121955, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.645193, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009901, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.124636, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039844, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.397527, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.224138, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 82000, "relative_activity": 1.403389, "balance": 2.224138, "dry_up": 1.311826, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056355, "annualized_volatility": 0.267084, "from_high_reference": -0.078626, "from_low_reference": 0.612553 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.682333, "fair_value_reference": 9.615892, "structural_low": 10.65, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.01978, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.023062, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.083711, "worst_return": -0.041776, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.007187, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.030875, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.054934, "worst_return": -0.168432, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.128696, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.046302, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.338942, "worst_return": 0.063559, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.104675, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0732, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.079812, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.077253, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.123518, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005181, 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16.406, 15.962545, 14.828286, 13.983857 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.27, "volume": 84300, "typical_volume": 51515.0, "trend": 13.191593, "fair_value": 9.399795, "relative_strength": 20.742226, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.977188, "energy": 65.817475, "activity_lines": [ 16.397333, 16.097455, 15.066952, 14.192961 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.07, "volume": 85400, "typical_volume": 53235.0, "trend": 13.310296, "fair_value": 9.452237, "relative_strength": 11.629957, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.482775, "energy": 51.734508, "activity_lines": [ 15.936667, 15.976909, 15.169429, 14.314148 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.0, "volume": 66400, "typical_volume": 54040.0, "trend": 13.426667, "fair_value": 9.503594, "relative_strength": 10.468084, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.351215, "energy": 36.660637, "activity_lines": [ 15.53, 15.833273, 15.249, 14.423161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.09, "volume": 72800, "typical_volume": 56180.0, "trend": 13.551667, "fair_value": 9.557181, "relative_strength": 11.216199, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.736739, "energy": 28.693029, "activity_lines": [ 15.298, 15.698182, 15.318571, 14.530473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.82, "volume": 82000, "typical_volume": 58430.0, "trend": 13.682333, "fair_value": 9.615892, "relative_strength": 12.463626, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.217668, "energy": 28.539105, "activity_lines": [ 15.391333, 15.694727, 15.439143, 14.676817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }