{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14dcc3d8-6168-429b-a3e2-51791957d554", "symbol": "BCAL", "name": "Southern California Bancorp Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.883, "architecture_energy": 54.589, "architecture_maturity": 25.911, "architecture_confidence": 76.368, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.46, "rotation_up": 68.51, "upward_expansion": 86.07, "deceleration": 53.75, "rotation_down": 17.73, "downward_expansion": 8.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.175333, 20.908941, 20.1688, 19.642037 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 21.25, "trend_reference": 19.089901, "distance_from_trend": 0.113154, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.09632, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.320178, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.539803, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.115423, "excess_performance": -0.072031, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.113154, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029977, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.320178, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092594, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.005398, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08092, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.115423, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.394978, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 797716, "relative_activity": 0.794595, "balance": 1.394978, "dry_up": 1.171574, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048774, "annualized_volatility": 0.160052, "from_high_reference": -0.034091, "from_low_reference": 0.413404 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.089901, "fair_value_reference": 16.09632, "structural_low": 16.774193, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.008615, "positive_rate": 0.608696, "directional_follow_through": 0.608696, "median_excess_return": -0.01919, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.085517, "worst_return": -0.146269, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.033638, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.050624, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.148538, "worst_return": -0.114422, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.044614, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.083706, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.062725, "worst_return": -0.213349, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.981978, "energy": 83.0052, "activity_lines": [ 20.844886, 20.306208, 19.586353, 19.198428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.02, "volume": 1515601, "typical_volume": 1030871.45, "trend": 18.891261, "fair_value": 16.016315, "relative_strength": 5.638915, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.818035, "energy": 73.397143, "activity_lines": [ 20.97, 20.521031, 19.780508, 19.340599 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.3, "volume": 1191551, "typical_volume": 1052767.3, "trend": 18.986442, "fair_value": 16.05521, "relative_strength": 6.124842, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.99455, "energy": 64.255464, "activity_lines": [ 21.096667, 20.741106, 19.986272, 19.496001 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.25, "volume": 797716, "typical_volume": 1003927.35, "trend": 19.089901, "fair_value": 16.09632, "relative_strength": 0.539803, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.883027, "energy": 54.588585, "activity_lines": [ 21.175333, 20.908941, 20.1688, 19.642037 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }