{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14dd4879-e27f-410e-bbb9-c85cb5b6d7d1", "symbol": "4170", "name": "VBI", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.611, "architecture_energy": 32.724, "architecture_maturity": 14.098, "architecture_confidence": 95.132, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.53, "rotation_up": 20.35, "upward_expansion": 8.99, "deceleration": 39.43, "rotation_down": 50.69, "downward_expansion": 75.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.653333, 12.820909, 13.0, 13.127312 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 12.3, "trend_reference": 13.315, "distance_from_trend": -0.07623, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.952244, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.118421, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.380822, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.108696, "excess_performance": -0.550068, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.07623, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029872, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.118421, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06876, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.363808, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019797, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.108696, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.663349, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37847, "relative_activity": 0.108184, "balance": 0.663349, "dry_up": 1.481779, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119762, "annualized_volatility": 0.5189, "from_high_reference": -0.322314, "from_low_reference": 0.069565 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.315, "fair_value_reference": 13.952244, "structural_low": 11.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.031445, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007752, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.256198, "worst_return": -0.12766, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.037937, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.152947, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.02623, "worst_return": -0.049645, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.042623, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.065541, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.042623, "worst_return": -0.042623, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035599, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.074576, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.194346, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125392, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.007353, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12766, "active": false 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12.766364, 13.119524, 13.292796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.4, "volume": 85905, "typical_volume": 236954.05, "trend": 13.478333, "fair_value": 13.9, "relative_strength": -38.218449, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.911521, "energy": 53.279137, "activity_lines": [ 12.39, 12.644545, 13.033095, 13.218925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.2, "volume": 1280437, "typical_volume": 287405.1, "trend": 13.521667, "fair_value": 13.923397, "relative_strength": -18.948743, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.45628, "energy": 5.794777, "activity_lines": [ 13.33, 13.069091, 13.219524, 13.33 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.3, "volume": 1512289, "typical_volume": 348754.95, "trend": 13.52, "fair_value": 13.941026, "relative_strength": -24.798747, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.66913, "energy": 14.734276, "activity_lines": [ 13.79, 13.295455, 13.315, 13.380215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.9, "volume": 374360, "typical_volume": 354722.05, "trend": 13.45, "fair_value": 13.943269, "relative_strength": -35.965526, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.284436, "energy": 21.840701, "activity_lines": [ 13.303333, 13.064545, 13.180952, 13.275699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.2, "volume": 149042, "typical_volume": 357105.1, "trend": 13.35, "fair_value": 13.947436, "relative_strength": -35.311373, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.657467, "energy": 19.587415, "activity_lines": [ 12.953333, 12.922727, 13.082619, 13.195054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 12.3, "volume": 37847, "typical_volume": 349839.25, "trend": 13.315, "fair_value": 13.952244, "relative_strength": -36.380822, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.611446, "energy": 32.724405, "activity_lines": [ 12.653333, 12.820909, 13.0, 13.127312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }