{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14e0b9a3-78b2-4b93-ada4-1cbc94da34f4", "symbol": "2355", "name": "Chin-Poon Industrial Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 57.444, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -32.763, "architecture_energy": 48.312, "architecture_maturity": 17.527, "architecture_confidence": 66.039, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.88, "rotation_up": 18.94, "upward_expansion": 17.13, "deceleration": 47.6, "rotation_down": 60.2, "downward_expansion": 54.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.783335, 42.604414, 47.53561, 48.217965 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 41.700001, "trend_reference": 47.337154, "distance_from_trend": -0.119085, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.168634, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.09252, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.813676, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.113533, "excess_performance": -0.232199, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.119085, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.1116, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.09252, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.649758, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.238137, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.413181, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.113533, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.188311, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9776428, "relative_activity": 0.136156, "balance": 1.188311, "dry_up": 0.214999, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.160762, "annualized_volatility": 0.607698, "from_high_reference": -0.398535, "from_low_reference": 0.462466 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.337154, "fair_value_reference": 38.168634, "structural_low": 34.299999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.08323, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.011421, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.126957, "worst_return": -0.066558, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.130435, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.038772, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.413154, "worst_return": -0.105519, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.015475, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.11838, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.202361, "worst_return": -0.109568, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"relative_strength": -31.399147, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.661561, "energy": 57.428697, "activity_lines": [ 41.683769, 46.603549, 50.241327, 49.260108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.450001, "volume": 16490314, "typical_volume": 89717268.25, "trend": 46.715039, "fair_value": 38.023703, "relative_strength": -25.573561, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.026006, "energy": 56.331615, "activity_lines": [ 40.40782, 44.75034, 49.229305, 48.875702 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 41.900002, "volume": 12385045, "typical_volume": 82890045.4, "trend": 47.079882, "fair_value": 38.099393, "relative_strength": -25.046247, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.289958, "energy": 55.665676, "activity_lines": [ 40.375311, 43.584673, 48.374332, 48.565054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 41.700001, "volume": 9776428, "typical_volume": 71803085.7, "trend": 47.337154, "fair_value": 38.168634, "relative_strength": -23.813676, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.763411, "energy": 48.312423, "activity_lines": [ 40.783335, 42.604414, 47.53561, 48.217965 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }