{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14e16cee-5c76-4a2e-abe8-b8ed1dbd0276", "symbol": "MGU", "name": "Magnum Mining and Exploration Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.695, "architecture_energy": 74.159, "architecture_maturity": 40.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.447, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.06, "rotation_up": 76.13, "upward_expansion": 87.98, "deceleration": 45.07, "rotation_down": 8.62, "downward_expansion": 14.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.007533, 0.006727, 0.006469, 0.006266 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.009, "trend_reference": 0.006, "distance_from_trend": 0.5, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.012324, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.269739, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 31.034228, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.8, "excess_performance": 0.736294, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.5, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031519, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.269739, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.252174, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.310342, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.25431, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.8, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.996299, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 100065323, "relative_activity": 3.104213, "balance": 3.996299, "dry_up": 1.437406, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.141026, "annualized_volatility": 1.054996, "from_high_reference": -0.357143, "from_low_reference": 1.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.006, "fair_value_reference": 0.012324, "structural_low": 0.004, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.008915, "regime_survival": 0.4375, "best_return": 1.045455, "worst_return": -0.461538, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.146825, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.166473, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.615385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.402439, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.347047, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.272727, "worst_return": -0.5625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.615385, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.669042, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.409091, "worst_return": -0.756098, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.4375, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.45, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.461538, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", 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-16.076996, "energy": 24.754721, "activity_lines": [ 0.0053, 0.005664, 0.005936, 0.005842 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.0065, "volume": 24367691, "typical_volume": 30573011.05, "trend": 0.00575, "fair_value": 0.013459, "relative_strength": -1.56601, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.452081, "energy": 9.782558, "activity_lines": [ 0.005633, 0.005755, 0.005995, 0.005894 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.006, "volume": 40034200, "typical_volume": 29949407.1, "trend": 0.005767, "fair_value": 0.013164, "relative_strength": -8.498658, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.686722, "energy": 3.618449, "activity_lines": [ 0.005833, 0.005764, 0.006005, 0.00591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0065, "volume": 16878908, "typical_volume": 30013185.15, "trend": 0.005817, "fair_value": 0.012917, "relative_strength": -0.426477, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.611164, "energy": 21.906801, "activity_lines": [ 0.006133, 0.005882, 0.006057, 0.005957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0075, "volume": 28362609, "typical_volume": 27963296.9, "trend": 0.0059, "fair_value": 0.012638, "relative_strength": 12.868844, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.014087, "energy": 36.65194, "activity_lines": [ 0.006667, 0.006173, 0.006198, 0.006066 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.009, "volume": 100065323, "typical_volume": 32235330.0, "trend": 0.006, "fair_value": 0.012324, "relative_strength": 31.034228, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.695064, "energy": 74.158872, "activity_lines": [ 0.007533, 0.006727, 0.006469, 0.006266 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }