{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14e70b42-9b26-46df-9f36-a594c9cdcaf9", "symbol": "DAN", "name": "Dana Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 59.247, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.023, "architecture_energy": 40.83, "architecture_maturity": 26.661, "architecture_confidence": 80.066, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.31, "rotation_up": 22.44, "upward_expansion": 10.35, "deceleration": 57.16, "rotation_down": 48.14, "downward_expansion": 72.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.36321, 27.471059, 29.933646, 30.970238 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 28.44, "trend_reference": 31.65943, "distance_from_trend": -0.101689, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.495276, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.625582, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.242959, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.096296, "excess_performance": -0.221921, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.101689, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063818, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.625582, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.507124, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.06243, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.369096, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.096296, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.489196, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7984624, "relative_activity": 1.20792, "balance": 0.489196, "dry_up": 0.980525, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118294, "annualized_volatility": 0.409142, "from_high_reference": -0.278606, "from_low_reference": 0.650619 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.65943, "fair_value_reference": 17.495276, "structural_low": 24.496639, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.042581, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": 0.0456, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.36308, "worst_return": -0.279599, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.076718, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.012088, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.331717, "worst_return": -0.30635, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.04699, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.056331, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.332997, "worst_return": -0.280356, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.028008, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.054542, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.614497, "worst_return": -0.331535, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.146607, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.220884, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.092432, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.168679, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021648, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.190251, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085267, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.154579, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.569634, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", 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"close": 27.215168, "volume": 8557030, "typical_volume": 6900431.35, "trend": 31.323128, "fair_value": 17.224117, "relative_strength": -6.21886, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.003566, "energy": 66.074277, "activity_lines": [ 27.257146, 29.662358, 31.889228, 32.08009 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.448403, "volume": 6250503, "typical_volume": 6822204.2, "trend": 31.41922, "fair_value": 17.284673, "relative_strength": -7.880974, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.633831, "energy": 68.169057, "activity_lines": [ 26.73058, 28.782422, 31.286099, 31.765592 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.956261, "volume": 5730829, "typical_volume": 6759145.5, "trend": 31.526945, "fair_value": 17.345412, "relative_strength": -6.077243, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.477423, "energy": 71.814012, "activity_lines": [ 26.664073, 28.144853, 30.767878, 31.477659 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.816849, "volume": 5960000, "typical_volume": 6686794.85, "trend": 31.594934, "fair_value": 17.410753, "relative_strength": -8.072167, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.523724, "energy": 57.270429, "activity_lines": [ 26.699345, 27.593641, 30.262862, 31.173782 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.44, "volume": 7984624, "typical_volume": 6610226.35, "trend": 31.65943, "fair_value": 17.495276, "relative_strength": -6.242959, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.022797, "energy": 40.829601, "activity_lines": [ 27.36321, 27.471059, 29.933646, 30.970238 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }