{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14e8e565-6ac5-4ab3-a60f-b1eaa373a0e4", "symbol": "CARR", "name": "Carrier Global\u00a0Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 63.795, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 14.66, "architecture_energy": 17.259, "architecture_maturity": 56.966, "architecture_confidence": 82.644, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.84, "rotation_up": 16.05, "upward_expansion": 51.22, "deceleration": 93.73, "rotation_down": 39.54, "downward_expansion": 21.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.327249, 67.365812, 66.876447, 65.35918 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 64.01, "trend_reference": 63.499117, "distance_from_trend": 0.008046, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 62.090538, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.030914, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.301056, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.005056, "excess_performance": -0.120569, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008046, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082423, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.030914, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074676, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.063011, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014546, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.005056, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.144282, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28314292, "relative_activity": 0.88412, "balance": 1.144282, "dry_up": 1.136564, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078082, "annualized_volatility": 0.37692, "from_high_reference": -0.163101, "from_low_reference": 0.284284 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.499117, "fair_value_reference": 62.090538, "structural_low": 53.574857, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.01186, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.002919, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.087178, "worst_return": -0.085564, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.015723, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.076902, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.277672, "worst_return": -0.169719, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.047481, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.057508, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.153341, "worst_return": -0.122269, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003663, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.076807, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.135662, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003058, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.135094, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": 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"direction": 56.782936, "energy": 41.548453, "activity_lines": [ 69.749656, 69.239216, 66.768327, 64.963814 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 68.88, "volume": 31475357, "typical_volume": 31382027.8, "trend": 62.935058, "fair_value": 61.977485, "relative_strength": 4.475036, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.881689, "energy": 27.789306, "activity_lines": [ 69.227495, 69.381354, 67.227614, 65.381155 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 61.81, "volume": 60360045, "typical_volume": 32596888.75, "trend": 63.225559, "fair_value": 62.022219, "relative_strength": -6.766238, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.621973, "energy": 14.149871, "activity_lines": [ 66.526835, 68.161492, 66.962416, 65.308571 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 64.01, "volume": 28314292, "typical_volume": 32025408.85, "trend": 63.499117, "fair_value": 62.090538, "relative_strength": -6.301056, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.65979, "energy": 17.259277, "activity_lines": [ 65.327249, 67.365812, 66.876447, 65.35918 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }