{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14e95a7e-cca5-44b7-abaa-cf1477d6088e", "symbol": "RVSB", "name": "Riverview Bancorp Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.546, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -14.492, "architecture_energy": 22.364, "architecture_maturity": 4.658, "architecture_confidence": 45.907, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.47, "rotation_up": 19.13, "upward_expansion": 17.16, "deceleration": 56.48, "rotation_down": 51.17, "downward_expansion": 44.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.312, 5.363899, 5.441464, 5.435198 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.36, "trend_reference": 5.404457, "distance_from_trend": -0.008226, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.126823, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.045482, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.357044, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.005672, "excess_performance": -0.193126, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008226, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016706, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.045482, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041481, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.11357, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019906, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.005672, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.447186, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 191458, "relative_activity": 0.501085, "balance": 0.447186, "dry_up": 0.74094, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060607, "annualized_volatility": 0.232027, "from_high_reference": -0.134981, "from_low_reference": 0.14376 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.404457, "fair_value_reference": 5.126823, "structural_low": 4.982047, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.001516, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.046387, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.001516, "worst_return": -0.001516, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.056078, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.262843, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.056078, "worst_return": -0.056078, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.076475, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.141407, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.076475, "worst_return": 0.076475, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.939201, "energy": 15.137648, "activity_lines": [ 5.414744, 5.513592, 5.500446, 5.454735 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.28, "volume": 329157, "typical_volume": 388227.75, "trend": 5.373676, "fair_value": 5.127818, "relative_strength": -9.972693, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.568423, "energy": 22.140238, "activity_lines": [ 5.331093, 5.465896, 5.483075, 5.448733 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.28, "volume": 316816, "typical_volume": 392456.7, "trend": 5.383263, "fair_value": 5.127673, "relative_strength": -8.154263, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.31408, "energy": 25.476547, "activity_lines": [ 5.292596, 5.422382, 5.465946, 5.44269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.3, "volume": 294982, "typical_volume": 393470.8, "trend": 5.392855, "fair_value": 5.127536, "relative_strength": -8.114254, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.063195, "energy": 28.821449, "activity_lines": [ 5.293965, 5.38505, 5.451154, 5.437318 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.36, "volume": 191458, "typical_volume": 382086.8, "trend": 5.404457, "fair_value": 5.126823, "relative_strength": -11.357044, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.492144, "energy": 22.363899, "activity_lines": [ 5.312, 5.363899, 5.441464, 5.435198 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }