{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14ea6853-992e-4793-a3bc-16b1c353e67b", "symbol": "600422", "name": "KPC Pharmaceuticals,Inc.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.728, "architecture_energy": 28.056, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 71.662, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.84, "rotation_up": 30.23, "upward_expansion": 22.63, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 20.6, "downward_expansion": 56.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.781987, 8.53174, 8.759083, 9.396493 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 8.82, "trend_reference": 10.327439, "distance_from_trend": -0.145964, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.238639, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.421208, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.736926, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.293835, "excess_performance": -0.250631, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.145964, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130638, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.421208, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003368, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.247369, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11037, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.293835, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.0935, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46015930, "relative_activity": 1.175539, "balance": 1.0935, "dry_up": 1.877982, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070051, "annualized_volatility": 0.329114, "from_high_reference": -0.415119, "from_low_reference": 0.168212 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.327439, "fair_value_reference": 15.238639, "structural_low": 7.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.012177, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": -0.022435, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.244369, "worst_return": -0.217391, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.049602, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.098834, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.388747, "worst_return": -0.292417, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.040481, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.127498, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.715152, "worst_return": -0.359487, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.775649, "volume": 125536160, "typical_volume": 35042498.7, "trend": 10.701775, "fair_value": 15.398018, "relative_strength": -24.237686, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.275369, "energy": 62.149864, "activity_lines": [ 8.257982, 8.31029, 8.981421, 9.736862 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.559935, "volume": 72185462, "typical_volume": 37016574.35, "trend": 10.571773, "fair_value": 15.343942, "relative_strength": -26.257945, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.912079, "energy": 47.170302, "activity_lines": [ 8.401744, 8.337674, 8.866923, 9.598679 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.07, "volume": 50313420, "typical_volume": 38242986.25, "trend": 10.452106, "fair_value": 15.293258, "relative_strength": -21.409146, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.243942, "energy": 34.497562, "activity_lines": [ 8.684199, 8.463253, 8.817575, 9.50179 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.82, "volume": 46015930, "typical_volume": 39144543.75, "trend": 10.327439, "fair_value": 15.238639, "relative_strength": -24.736926, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.727738, "energy": 28.055926, "activity_lines": [ 8.781987, 8.53174, 8.759083, 9.396493 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }