{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14f07944-74fd-4d5b-9e4e-2abdd53cf044", "symbol": "HINDPETRO", "name": "Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -14.407, "architecture_energy": 9.739, "architecture_maturity": 30.416, "architecture_confidence": 58.826, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.8, "rotation_up": 14.66, "upward_expansion": 22.69, "deceleration": 64.49, "rotation_down": 38.52, "downward_expansion": 51.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 390.909996, 393.34636, 389.209521, 387.438062 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 393.049988, "trend_reference": 393.673332, "distance_from_trend": -0.001583, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 349.865752, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.123431, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.94499, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.151355, "excess_performance": -0.107646, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001583, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059589, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.123431, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04528, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.03945, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0046, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.151355, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.294854, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25630293, "relative_activity": 0.864678, "balance": 1.294854, "dry_up": 1.119907, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05381, "annualized_volatility": 0.326367, "from_high_reference": -0.226964, "from_low_reference": 0.243042 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 393.673332, "fair_value_reference": 349.865752, "structural_low": 316.200012, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.014404, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.014492, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.132855, "worst_return": -0.18092, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.063781, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.081501, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.191475, "worst_return": -0.18614, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.145249, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.075414, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.205069, "worst_return": -0.101263, "sufficient": 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"fair_value": 346.924024, "relative_strength": -3.727056, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.523868, "energy": 12.066069, "activity_lines": [ 393.383331, 394.106362, 386.563807, 388.199138 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 389.75, "volume": 32440332, "typical_volume": 32791469.85, "trend": 395.529999, "fair_value": 348.384214, "relative_strength": -4.044402, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.622903, "energy": 8.404111, "activity_lines": [ 390.946665, 393.427271, 387.779522, 387.598063 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 393.049988, "volume": 25630293, "typical_volume": 29641417.9, "trend": 393.673332, "fair_value": 349.865752, "relative_strength": -3.94499, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.407323, "energy": 9.739249, "activity_lines": [ 390.909996, 393.34636, 389.209521, 387.438062 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }