{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14f803bf-39f1-44b1-8f8b-f9a91062e659", "symbol": "131890", "name": "KINDEX Samsung Group EW ETF", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 7.526, "architecture_energy": 18.539, "architecture_maturity": 67.476, "architecture_confidence": 85.925, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.41, "rotation_up": 16.04, "upward_expansion": 45.87, "deceleration": 87.93, "rotation_down": 40.0, "downward_expansion": 28.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 39283.333333, 40680.363636, 41106.114397, 39514.213054 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 39185.0, "trend_reference": 37108.960938, "distance_from_trend": 0.055944, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21790.517372, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.798259, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.101078, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.302205, "excess_performance": 0.072376, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055944, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.16517, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.798259, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.286577, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.041011, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.17567, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.302205, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.847891, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5927, "relative_activity": 0.318374, "balance": 0.847891, "dry_up": 0.41329, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088299, "annualized_volatility": 0.356187, "from_high_reference": -0.178942, "from_low_reference": 0.888428 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37108.960938, "fair_value_reference": 21790.517372, "structural_low": 29172.870594, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.007332, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.01678, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.209713, "worst_return": -0.023733, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.028526, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.019731, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.371114, "worst_return": -0.070784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.037563, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.010058, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.044533, "worst_return": -0.089961, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0159, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.002641, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043428, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002577, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041122, 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"2026-08-07", "close": 39185.0, "volume": 5927, "typical_volume": 18616.45, "trend": 37108.960938, "fair_value": 21790.517372, "relative_strength": 4.101078, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.525694, "energy": 18.538648, "activity_lines": [ 39283.333333, 40680.363636, 41106.114397, 39514.213054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }