{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14fc73eb-f8c9-402f-a9b8-a5393bc28692", "symbol": "SPN", "name": "South Port New Zealand Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 72.685, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.419, "architecture_energy": 15.075, "architecture_maturity": 29.429, "architecture_confidence": 54.212, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.62, "rotation_up": 14.23, "upward_expansion": 13.77, "deceleration": 61.79, "rotation_down": 40.86, "downward_expansion": 56.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.516, 8.537273, 8.495619, 8.523097 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 8.55, "trend_reference": 8.613667, "distance_from_trend": -0.007391, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.745348, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.26754, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.167474, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.044693, "excess_performance": -0.072966, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007391, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005095, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.26754, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100613, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.021675, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009199, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.044693, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.55658, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6945, "relative_activity": 1.193022, "balance": 7.55658, "dry_up": 0.833226, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02843, "annualized_volatility": 0.192762, "from_high_reference": -0.078664, "from_low_reference": 0.180026 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.613667, "fair_value_reference": 6.745348, "structural_low": 7.6, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout 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"green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.085859, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04452, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.374763, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.108434, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018559, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064407, "active": 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"mixed", "direction": 1.798741, "energy": 9.759504, "activity_lines": [ 8.594, 8.607636, 8.480381, 8.546774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.55, "volume": 13695, "typical_volume": 5856.9, "trend": 8.583333, "fair_value": 6.697034, "relative_strength": -1.260985, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.38167, "energy": 11.041811, "activity_lines": [ 8.558667, 8.620909, 8.481429, 8.545161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.5, "volume": 5677, "typical_volume": 6025.3, "trend": 8.592, "fair_value": 6.708964, "relative_strength": -1.421272, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.982082, "energy": 17.208209, "activity_lines": [ 8.52, 8.608727, 8.480714, 8.539785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.48, "volume": 3991, "typical_volume": 5760.95, "trend": 8.594667, "fair_value": 6.720593, "relative_strength": -2.382946, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.440032, "energy": 21.823913, "activity_lines": [ 8.5, 8.578182, 8.480524, 8.532559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.5, "volume": 2789, "typical_volume": 5859.25, "trend": 8.602, "fair_value": 6.732523, "relative_strength": -1.695115, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.70174, "energy": 18.949012, "activity_lines": [ 8.501333, 8.550182, 8.484524, 8.526452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.55, "volume": 6945, "typical_volume": 5821.35, "trend": 8.613667, "fair_value": 6.745348, "relative_strength": -2.167474, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.418633, "energy": 15.074526, "activity_lines": [ 8.516, 8.537273, 8.495619, 8.523097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }