{ "ticker": { "uuid": "14fd65d6-6086-4927-9d31-a6ead2c478b4", "symbol": "RTWP", "name": "L&G Russell 2000 US Small Cap Quality UCITS ETF USD Accumulate", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.318, "architecture_energy": 49.492, "architecture_maturity": 94.243, "architecture_confidence": 64.627, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.32, "rotation_up": 45.16, "upward_expansion": 69.89, "deceleration": 65.45, "rotation_down": 27.5, "downward_expansion": 19.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 10546.533333, 10563.5, 10361.7, 10100.115054 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 10679.0, "trend_reference": 9792.416667, "distance_from_trend": 0.090538, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8250.141026, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.294402, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.906942, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.153613, "excess_performance": 0.102378, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.090538, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0611, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.294402, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052771, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.059069, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019366, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.153613, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.346505, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6927, "relative_activity": 0.914196, "balance": 2.346505, "dry_up": 1.12539, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025207, "annualized_volatility": 0.118832, "from_high_reference": -0.018433, "from_low_reference": 0.351066 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9792.416667, "fair_value_reference": 8250.141026, "structural_low": 8632.422852, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.005692, "positive_rate": 0.548387, "directional_follow_through": 0.548387, "median_excess_return": -0.003131, "regime_survival": 0.709677, "best_return": 0.122861, "worst_return": -0.136659, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.037769, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.007645, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.100828, "worst_return": -0.155278, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.013433, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.03994, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.142784, "worst_return": -0.099476, "sufficient": 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7.063072, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.992626, "energy": 62.403487, "activity_lines": [ 10582.966667, 10543.536364, 10255.259524, 9996.432258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10364.0, "volume": 5712, "typical_volume": 9069.6, "trend": 9744.666667, "fair_value": 8227.237179, "relative_strength": 3.331951, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.57347, "energy": 48.197372, "activity_lines": [ 10498.566667, 10528.045455, 10296.935714, 10039.835484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10679.0, "volume": 6927, "typical_volume": 7577.15, "trend": 9792.416667, "fair_value": 8250.141026, "relative_strength": 5.906942, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.317689, "energy": 49.492304, "activity_lines": [ 10546.533333, 10563.5, 10361.7, 10100.115054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }