{ "ticker": { "uuid": "150707e9-f5e6-4451-8461-64e31be9917e", "symbol": "002225", "name": "Puyang Refractories Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.862, "architecture_energy": 76.391, "architecture_maturity": 49.838, "architecture_confidence": 90.371, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.2, "rotation_up": 12.08, "upward_expansion": 18.05, "deceleration": 37.87, "rotation_down": 68.16, "downward_expansion": 89.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.682, 3.922727, 4.128134, 4.481076 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.76, "trend_reference": 4.999816, "distance_from_trend": -0.247972, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.592888, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.181343, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.56215, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.43321, "excess_performance": -0.440609, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.247972, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1022, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.181343, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.234032, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.335622, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010136, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.43321, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.705723, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 114552491, "relative_activity": 0.72732, "balance": 0.705723, "dry_up": 0.905562, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121986, "annualized_volatility": 0.539629, "from_high_reference": -0.505988, "from_low_reference": 0.160494 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.999816, "fair_value_reference": 4.592888, "structural_low": 3.24, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.040912, "positive_rate": 0.65, "directional_follow_through": 0.35, "median_excess_return": 0.028254, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 0.415789, "worst_return": -0.266234, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.049654, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.05834, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.63125, "worst_return": -0.196364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.180926, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.138977, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.825, "worst_return": -0.012987, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"energy": 34.499384, "activity_lines": [ 4.239333, 4.202583, 4.422124, 4.784039 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.39, "volume": 166145256, "typical_volume": 163444147.05, "trend": 5.141141, "fair_value": 4.592473, "relative_strength": -39.872981, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.998828, "energy": 54.446383, "activity_lines": [ 3.932667, 4.062709, 4.293308, 4.666443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.57, "volume": 117898917, "typical_volume": 158070839.85, "trend": 5.062047, "fair_value": 4.592195, "relative_strength": -34.680974, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.98745, "energy": 74.122632, "activity_lines": [ 3.740667, 3.972182, 4.196235, 4.565079 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.76, "volume": 114552491, "typical_volume": 157499364.4, "trend": 4.999816, "fair_value": 4.592888, "relative_strength": -33.56215, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.861985, "energy": 76.391366, "activity_lines": [ 3.682, 3.922727, 4.128134, 4.481076 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }