{ "ticker": { "uuid": "15091930-a1d7-4eae-b21e-39cbe4d5954a", "symbol": "002310", "name": "Beijing Orient EcoEnergy Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 66.224, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.032, "architecture_energy": 25.394, "architecture_maturity": 43.055, "architecture_confidence": 84.952, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.77, "rotation_up": 25.77, "upward_expansion": 15.24, "deceleration": 46.27, "rotation_down": 34.54, "downward_expansion": 65.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.389333, 2.337091, 2.523762, 2.622129 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.48, "trend_reference": 2.650333, "distance_from_trend": -0.064269, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.086346, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.188681, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.967179, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.055319, "excess_performance": 0.047919, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.064269, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00848, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.188681, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.397376, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.059672, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122211, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.055319, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.558236, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 687180420, "relative_activity": 0.64538, "balance": 0.558236, "dry_up": 0.971685, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.132134, "annualized_volatility": 0.722636, "from_high_reference": -0.396594, "from_low_reference": 0.246231 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.650333, "fair_value_reference": 2.086346, "structural_low": 1.99, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.014808, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.001088, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.370588, "worst_return": -0.246988, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.051064, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.033817, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.52809, "worst_return": -0.497175, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.122047, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.033723, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.221622, "worst_return": -0.231638, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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-37.123141, "energy": 61.439305, "activity_lines": [ 2.252667, 2.372182, 2.636905, 2.671441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.19, "volume": 1053007998, "typical_volume": 1128737398.3, "trend": 2.637667, "fair_value": 2.079936, "relative_strength": -13.987396, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.847404, "energy": 51.14999, "activity_lines": [ 2.234, 2.311818, 2.579143, 2.642151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.49, "volume": 1624655880, "typical_volume": 1161769640.95, "trend": 2.642667, "fair_value": 2.085, "relative_strength": -0.682118, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.790026, "energy": 34.381907, "activity_lines": [ 2.324667, 2.322, 2.551381, 2.632624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.48, "volume": 687180420, "typical_volume": 1064768796.1, "trend": 2.650333, "fair_value": 2.086346, "relative_strength": -5.967179, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.031546, "energy": 25.393514, "activity_lines": [ 2.389333, 2.337091, 2.523762, 2.622129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }