{ "ticker": { "uuid": "150d09ff-1854-48ab-8223-2a7517fe2c19", "symbol": "SGOL", "name": "Leverage Shares 3x Short Gold ETC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 51.544, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.204, "architecture_energy": 29.588, "architecture_maturity": 49.246, "architecture_confidence": 44.41, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.13, "rotation_up": 36.76, "upward_expansion": 66.5, "deceleration": 65.25, "rotation_down": 28.2, "downward_expansion": 18.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.350267, 0.356927, 0.333314, 0.313289 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.297, "trend_reference": 0.292267, "distance_from_trend": 0.016195, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.443905, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.878473, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -37.811052, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.192771, "excess_performance": 0.141536, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.016195, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110886, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.878473, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035876, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.378111, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.244754, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.192771, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.994783, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32561, "relative_activity": 0.297056, "balance": 2.994783, "dry_up": 0.322881, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133515, "annualized_volatility": 0.706417, "from_high_reference": -0.715789, "from_low_reference": 0.631868 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.292267, "fair_value_reference": 2.443905, "structural_low": 0.182, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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0.278373, 0.267045, 0.281014 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 0.343, "volume": 19462, "typical_volume": 230591.3, "trend": 0.314533, "fair_value": 2.744603, "relative_strength": -41.643648, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 14.031834, "energy": 29.851731, "activity_lines": [ 0.3123, 0.291727, 0.275076, 0.282462 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 0.363, "volume": 8812, "typical_volume": 213262.45, "trend": 0.308667, "fair_value": 2.705864, "relative_strength": -35.842266, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.252154, "energy": 59.509864, "activity_lines": [ 0.3325, 0.307418, 0.284674, 0.285589 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 0.379, "volume": 36818, "typical_volume": 180630.3, "trend": 0.30535, "fair_value": 2.666891, "relative_strength": -31.870425, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 55.010101, "energy": 76.623543, "activity_lines": [ 0.352867, 0.323955, 0.295276, 0.290127 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.351, "volume": 2830, "typical_volume": 170887.75, "trend": 0.30125, "fair_value": 2.628869, "relative_strength": -35.979351, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.254777, "energy": 71.894415, "activity_lines": [ 0.3578, 0.332755, 0.302593, 0.293072 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.367, "volume": 4941, "typical_volume": 163216.85, "trend": 0.298533, "fair_value": 2.593481, "relative_strength": -29.880115, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.476145, "energy": 73.841293, "activity_lines": [ 0.363, 0.342718, 0.310864, 0.297314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.389, "volume": 19783, "typical_volume": 161687.15, "trend": 0.29715, "fair_value": 2.557465, "relative_strength": -24.158172, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.414328, "energy": 85.123939, "activity_lines": [ 0.372467, 0.354845, 0.320571, 0.303151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.372, "volume": 40353, "typical_volume": 138573.05, "trend": 0.2967, "fair_value": 2.521524, "relative_strength": -26.06705, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.444789, "energy": 63.218248, "activity_lines": [ 0.3732, 0.361373, 0.327781, 0.30798 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.377, "volume": 48870, "typical_volume": 132542.45, "trend": 0.295, "fair_value": 2.483925, "relative_strength": -23.506445, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.543001, "energy": 56.249548, "activity_lines": [ 0.375, 0.367236, 0.334712, 0.31316 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.297, "volume": 32561, "typical_volume": 109612.35, "trend": 0.292267, "fair_value": 2.443905, "relative_strength": -37.811052, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.204404, "energy": 29.587804, "activity_lines": [ 0.350267, 0.356927, 0.333314, 0.313289 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }