{ "ticker": { "uuid": "150d4912-ae4c-431d-88a8-bf60e01578ca", "symbol": "138540", "name": "Mirae Asset TIGER Hyundai Motor Group+ ETF", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 68.861, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.792, "architecture_energy": 56.3, "architecture_maturity": 16.664, "architecture_confidence": 78.992, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.72, "rotation_up": 10.66, "upward_expansion": 10.28, "deceleration": 42.4, "rotation_down": 70.35, "downward_expansion": 85.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 51361.333333, 53673.909091, 58747.698121, 59668.456998 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 51955.0, "trend_reference": 59945.370052, "distance_from_trend": -0.133294, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34230.624963, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.517793, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.279274, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.036042, "excess_performance": -0.265871, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.133294, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096885, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.517793, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.654301, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.142793, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009763, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.036042, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.249346, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 909258, "relative_activity": 0.239874, "balance": 1.249346, "dry_up": 0.448678, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.150123, "annualized_volatility": 0.561587, "from_high_reference": -0.341884, "from_low_reference": 0.531412 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 59945.370052, "fair_value_reference": 34230.624963, "structural_low": 43650.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.008736, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.002848, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.027012, "worst_return": -0.015731, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.025661, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.027495, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.00917, "worst_return": -0.090503, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.048191, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.005454, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.128117, "worst_return": -0.140416, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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61577.363636, 62698.315104, 61743.269473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 52490.0, "volume": 1817319, "typical_volume": 4523338.8, "trend": 59191.523698, "fair_value": 33676.11581, "relative_strength": -21.910245, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.952422, "energy": 45.695494, "activity_lines": [ 54431.333333, 59324.272727, 61716.651191, 61334.972354 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 51120.0, "volume": 1524582, "typical_volume": 4025931.05, "trend": 59527.477604, "fair_value": 33859.870931, "relative_strength": -21.973135, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.578452, "energy": 58.917013, "activity_lines": [ 52841.333333, 57093.727273, 60701.237984, 60814.22889 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49600.0, "volume": 2551809, "typical_volume": 3903458.65, "trend": 59786.986719, "fair_value": 34037.137608, "relative_strength": -22.709347, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.686485, "energy": 56.818493, "activity_lines": [ 51604.0, 54980.909091, 59590.505562, 60173.746463 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51955.0, "volume": 909258, "typical_volume": 3790562.85, "trend": 59945.370052, "fair_value": 34230.624963, "relative_strength": -14.279274, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.791776, "energy": 56.300124, "activity_lines": [ 51361.333333, 53673.909091, 58747.698121, 59668.456998 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }