{ "ticker": { "uuid": "151400dc-e980-4d3b-a998-658d24605368", "symbol": "CNS", "name": "Corero Network Security plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.364, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.598, "architecture_energy": 68.406, "architecture_maturity": 26.371, "architecture_confidence": 79.603, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.96, "rotation_up": 12.23, "upward_expansion": 14.05, "deceleration": 42.25, "rotation_down": 73.24, "downward_expansion": 89.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.085333, 0.090364, 0.100083, 0.106118 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.0875, "trend_reference": 0.113583, "distance_from_trend": -0.22964, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.131268, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.333423, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.679802, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.326923, "excess_performance": -0.378158, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.22964, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003509, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.333423, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.287432, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.246798, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.232418, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.326923, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.594303, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3432858, "relative_activity": 4.363789, "balance": 1.594303, "dry_up": 2.082568, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.136835, "annualized_volatility": 0.370301, "from_high_reference": -0.351852, "from_low_reference": 0.166667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.113583, "fair_value_reference": 0.131268, "structural_low": 0.075, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.036086, "positive_rate": 0.366667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.023859, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.397849, "worst_return": -0.327586, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.007246, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.020622, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.3, "worst_return": -0.428571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.10299, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.060291, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.3, "worst_return": -0.42029, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.153247, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.225455, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.178404, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.12987, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.42029, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096154, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.104167, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.177778, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060606, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.065, "volume": 30938, "typical_volume": 368872.2, "trend": 0.066467, "fair_value": 0.100742, "relative_strength": -17.34298, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": 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"relative_strength": -28.053686, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.700181, "energy": 88.357997, "activity_lines": [ 0.091667, 0.098955, 0.107476, 0.11181 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.085, "volume": 1689302, "typical_volume": 642163.95, "trend": 0.114433, "fair_value": 0.131027, "relative_strength": -26.484479, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.875933, "energy": 86.597109, "activity_lines": [ 0.088, 0.095545, 0.104845, 0.109888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0825, "volume": 236248, "typical_volume": 625525.9, "trend": 0.114, "fair_value": 0.131123, "relative_strength": -29.112622, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.634148, "energy": 85.721795, "activity_lines": [ 0.085, 0.092273, 0.102143, 0.107828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0875, "volume": 3432858, "typical_volume": 786669.1, "trend": 0.113583, "fair_value": 0.131268, "relative_strength": -24.679802, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.597519, "energy": 68.406054, "activity_lines": [ 0.085333, 0.090364, 0.100083, 0.106118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }