{ "ticker": { "uuid": "15175f05-1db6-4fe1-b432-6aca1ba25fb0", "symbol": "PEJ", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR LEISURE AND ENTERTAINMENT ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.545, "architecture_energy": 50.204, "architecture_maturity": 45.509, "architecture_confidence": 59.14, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.4, "rotation_up": 48.47, "upward_expansion": 74.29, "deceleration": 68.22, "rotation_down": 26.52, "downward_expansion": 12.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 66.504, 66.361182, 64.733996, 63.423902 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 67.48, "trend_reference": 62.099898, "distance_from_trend": 0.086636, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 51.450367, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.311555, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.438062, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.111622, "excess_performance": -0.014003, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086636, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033796, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.311555, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088183, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014381, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06888, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.111622, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.431266, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1343374, "relative_activity": 5.844379, "balance": 2.431266, "dry_up": 1.972689, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031947, "annualized_volatility": 0.184033, "from_high_reference": -0.012873, "from_low_reference": 0.216247 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 62.099898, "fair_value_reference": 51.450367, "structural_low": 55.79, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.008365, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.013741, "regime_survival": 0.62963, "best_return": 0.061325, "worst_return": -0.153182, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.023471, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.011979, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.08494, "worst_return": -0.1178, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.028506, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.054657, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.06653, "worst_return": -0.047456, "sufficient": true }, { 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"energy": 77.235367, "activity_lines": [ 66.373343, 65.487297, 63.525454, 62.512383 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 65.03, "volume": 214611, "typical_volume": 169360.8, "trend": 61.722727, "fair_value": 51.122572, "relative_strength": -0.698419, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.725439, "energy": 55.145519, "activity_lines": [ 65.908, 65.629776, 63.825879, 62.732398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 66.87, "volume": 133623, "typical_volume": 171563.4, "trend": 61.908963, "fair_value": 51.284895, "relative_strength": 1.058833, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.99263, "energy": 48.058333, "activity_lines": [ 66.079333, 65.99769, 64.273673, 63.06448 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 67.48, "volume": 1343374, "typical_volume": 229857.45, "trend": 62.099898, "fair_value": 51.450367, "relative_strength": -1.438062, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.545457, "energy": 50.204333, "activity_lines": [ 66.504, 66.361182, 64.733996, 63.423902 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }