{ "ticker": { "uuid": "151d3806-1a98-43cb-84d1-4f1de2024f02", "symbol": "603713", "name": "Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.552, "architecture_energy": 25.389, "architecture_maturity": 61.165, "architecture_confidence": 86.96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.91, "rotation_up": 30.33, "upward_expansion": 63.65, "deceleration": 85.49, "rotation_down": 34.91, "downward_expansion": 15.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 64.268665, 66.35309, 62.897428, 61.880214 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 68.099998, "trend_reference": 61.131981, "distance_from_trend": 0.113983, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 55.961042, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.216918, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 14.133357, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.096806, "excess_performance": 0.14001, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.113983, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058064, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.216918, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.237595, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.141334, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.234213, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.096806, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.650133, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17551785, "relative_activity": 1.409097, "balance": 0.650133, "dry_up": 1.69952, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113742, "annualized_volatility": 0.566283, "from_high_reference": -0.188996, "from_low_reference": 0.358871 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.131981, "fair_value_reference": 55.961042, "structural_low": 50.115145, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.061689, "positive_rate": 0.1, "directional_follow_through": 0.1, "median_excess_return": -0.042115, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.032629, "worst_return": -0.1229, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.007396, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.043237, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.141549, "worst_return": -0.136291, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.033144, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.095686, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.351522, "worst_return": -0.088181, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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66.059495, "energy": 78.62778, "activity_lines": [ 71.029332, 66.413412, 62.085228, 61.380821 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 62.639999, "volume": 17811474, "typical_volume": 11669948.15, "trend": 60.55068, "fair_value": 56.197707, "relative_strength": 8.814023, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.685111, "energy": 47.550527, "activity_lines": [ 68.339332, 66.467884, 62.298597, 61.531005 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.549999, "volume": 16076357, "typical_volume": 11964010.6, "trend": 60.68658, "fair_value": 56.035588, "relative_strength": 1.210014, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.975173, "energy": 15.566176, "activity_lines": [ 64.129999, 65.613454, 62.136133, 61.401929 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 68.099998, "volume": 17551785, "typical_volume": 12456052.3, "trend": 61.131981, "fair_value": 55.961042, "relative_strength": 14.133357, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.551797, "energy": 25.388787, "activity_lines": [ 64.268665, 66.35309, 62.897428, 61.880214 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }