{ "ticker": { "uuid": "15214a7b-ac0c-4807-b454-0ee262fe057e", "symbol": "ATRO", "name": "Astronics Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.078, "architecture_energy": 22.547, "architecture_maturity": 58.463, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.77, "rotation_up": 28.74, "upward_expansion": 54.65, "deceleration": 90.45, "rotation_down": 25.66, "downward_expansion": 18.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 72.218667, 73.117927, 70.482798, 67.414816 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 77.75, "trend_reference": 64.275277, "distance_from_trend": 0.209641, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.562771, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.722075, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 29.775473, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.272144, "excess_performance": 0.08469, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.209641, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.188684, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.722075, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.203419, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.297755, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090606, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.272144, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.627088, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2538565, "relative_activity": 0.883028, "balance": 2.627088, "dry_up": 0.829974, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12056, "annualized_volatility": 0.50817, "from_high_reference": -0.123647, "from_low_reference": 2.225853 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 64.275277, "fair_value_reference": 28.562771, "structural_low": 49.074222, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.119216, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": 0.049182, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.38043, "worst_return": -0.078455, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.506078, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.330234, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.63095, "worst_return": -0.076603, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.204721, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.046967, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.300412, "worst_return": 0.128814, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.091302, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.266867, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.117957, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.258345, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.011269, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.156353, "active": false }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 75.767741, 73.734751, 67.960672, 65.124463 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 67.26, "volume": 2377576, "typical_volume": 3064513.85, "trend": 61.778768, "fair_value": 27.448554, "relative_strength": 21.526568, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.682008, "energy": 31.286658, "activity_lines": [ 72.532667, 73.07206, 68.281002, 65.5287 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 69.85, "volume": 2165005, "typical_volume": 3016252.65, "trend": 62.63304, "fair_value": 27.792764, "relative_strength": 26.622867, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.453901, "energy": 21.856499, "activity_lines": [ 70.784667, 72.746827, 68.834102, 66.049424 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 69.49, "volume": 2463029, "typical_volume": 2922237.85, "trend": 63.443387, "fair_value": 28.151139, "relative_strength": 23.762731, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.614058, "energy": 20.482361, "activity_lines": [ 69.630667, 72.22653, 69.309089, 66.491809 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 77.75, "volume": 2538565, "typical_volume": 2874841.05, "trend": 64.275277, "fair_value": 28.562771, "relative_strength": 29.775473, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.077523, "energy": 22.547104, "activity_lines": [ 72.218667, 73.117927, 70.482798, 67.414816 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }