{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1522dac2-fa81-4b5b-863a-187922c2efaa", "symbol": "1702", "name": "Namchow Holdings Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.988, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -17.83, "architecture_energy": 17.453, "architecture_maturity": 22.641, "architecture_confidence": 67.064, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.4, "rotation_up": 37.72, "upward_expansion": 35.12, "deceleration": 42.66, "rotation_down": 22.7, "downward_expansion": 43.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.123334, 32.953636, 32.627623, 32.972675 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 32.200001, "trend_reference": 33.630537, "distance_from_trend": -0.042537, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 42.327806, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.239271, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -35.904701, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.096235, "excess_performance": -0.537607, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.042537, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039674, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.239271, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034702, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.359047, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082081, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.096235, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.722169, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1006590, "relative_activity": 0.599233, "balance": 1.722169, "dry_up": 0.77487, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032064, "annualized_volatility": 0.158617, "from_high_reference": -0.170441, "from_low_reference": 0.064463 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.630537, "fair_value_reference": 42.327806, "structural_low": 30.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.00112, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.019311, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.035602, "worst_return": -0.077543, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.006646, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.006572, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.055497, "worst_return": -0.147059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.002533, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00441, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.149738, "worst_return": 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"trend": 34.174767, "fair_value": 42.550965, "relative_strength": -31.831256, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.551789, "energy": 19.336814, "activity_lines": [ 32.79, 32.254835, 32.530963, 33.172726 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.349998, "volume": 1301111, "typical_volume": 1774554.4, "trend": 34.025871, "fair_value": 42.505065, "relative_strength": -33.437209, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.699212, "energy": 24.691744, "activity_lines": [ 33.099999, 32.514235, 32.561063, 33.119515 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.75, "volume": 1942000, "typical_volume": 1722199.1, "trend": 33.910922, "fair_value": 42.449548, "relative_strength": -30.800715, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.780989, "energy": 24.113698, "activity_lines": [ 33.44, 32.80909, 32.639431, 33.101717 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.5, "volume": 956797, "typical_volume": 1685351.95, "trend": 33.789225, "fair_value": 42.390213, "relative_strength": -32.006202, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.293658, "energy": 23.749703, "activity_lines": [ 33.53, 33.02, 32.694554, 33.075206 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 32.200001, "volume": 1006590, "typical_volume": 1679797.7, "trend": 33.630537, "fair_value": 42.327806, "relative_strength": -35.904701, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.830159, "energy": 17.453419, "activity_lines": [ 33.123334, 32.953636, 32.627623, 32.972675 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }