{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1526da48-728e-4681-9b9e-6151777ca679", "symbol": "600844", "name": "Danhua Chemical Technology Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 54.628, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -7.013, "architecture_energy": 22.552, "architecture_maturity": 68.919, "architecture_confidence": 47.594, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.75, "rotation_up": 44.6, "upward_expansion": 23.23, "deceleration": 41.33, "rotation_down": 19.08, "downward_expansion": 57.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.175333, 2.948182, 3.035905, 3.186151 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 3.44, "trend_reference": 3.279333, "distance_from_trend": 0.048994, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.979936, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.154387, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.694969, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.065015, "excess_performance": 0.108219, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048994, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030357, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.154387, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055098, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.07695, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088115, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.065015, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.205185, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 326454002, "relative_activity": 1.085289, "balance": 2.205185, "dry_up": 1.472781, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105993, "annualized_volatility": 0.742798, "from_high_reference": -0.373406, "from_low_reference": 0.433333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.279333, "fair_value_reference": 2.979936, "structural_low": 2.4, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.021661, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.015107, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 0.359684, "worst_return": -0.218097, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.034656, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.002761, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.162319, "worst_return": -0.194514, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.039867, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.033091, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.150641, "worst_return": -0.167082, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-8.244511, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.415011, "energy": 77.172629, "activity_lines": [ 2.624, 2.709091, 3.054095, 3.185978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.02, "volume": 542703565, "typical_volume": 336890992.1, "trend": 3.248667, "fair_value": 2.972949, "relative_strength": -2.622985, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.466178, "energy": 39.025839, "activity_lines": [ 2.767333, 2.741091, 3.022905, 3.171269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.3, "volume": 508528009, "typical_volume": 321812103.0, "trend": 3.260667, "fair_value": 2.976346, "relative_strength": 6.110128, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.347997, "energy": 21.650914, "activity_lines": [ 2.976, 2.832727, 3.020667, 3.174581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.44, "volume": 326454002, "typical_volume": 300799180.3, "trend": 3.279333, "fair_value": 2.979936, "relative_strength": 7.694969, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.012678, "energy": 22.552214, "activity_lines": [ 3.175333, 2.948182, 3.035905, 3.186151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }