{ "ticker": { "uuid": "152ad475-4d02-422d-ab8c-e6a405cc49b0", "symbol": "GISSAA", "name": "Grupo Industrial Saltillo, S.A.B. de C.V.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 75.563, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.962, "architecture_energy": 37.567, "architecture_maturity": 20.426, "architecture_confidence": 91.55, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.62, "rotation_up": 19.3, "upward_expansion": 4.11, "deceleration": 51.83, "rotation_down": 51.0, "downward_expansion": 75.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.039333, 12.062545, 12.229908, 12.329001 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.0, "trend_reference": 12.485859, "distance_from_trend": -0.038913, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.354558, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.346211, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.272655, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.040563, "excess_performance": 0.014103, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.038913, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025594, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.346211, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006706, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102727, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071317, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.040563, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.834359, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12683, "relative_activity": 0.64998, "balance": 0.834359, "dry_up": 0.927322, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032051, "annualized_volatility": 0.197631, "from_high_reference": -0.247571, "from_low_reference": 0.093758 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.485859, "fair_value_reference": 18.354558, "structural_low": 10.97135, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.008397, "positive_rate": 0.282051, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.025527, "regime_survival": 0.897436, "best_return": 0.263204, "worst_return": -0.119615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.081565, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.096567, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.123568, "worst_return": -0.146096, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.133659, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.114599, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.030782, "worst_return": -0.201367, "sufficient": true }, { 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12.143333, 12.237818, 12.373021, 12.474658 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.0, "volume": 740, "typical_volume": 18526.3, "trend": 12.595102, "fair_value": 18.695415, "relative_strength": -11.830388, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.993908, "energy": 46.371246, "activity_lines": [ 12.110667, 12.168545, 12.32965, 12.434509 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.9, "volume": 6072, "typical_volume": 18337.1, "trend": 12.566213, "fair_value": 18.578034, "relative_strength": -11.561273, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.035915, "energy": 41.569781, "activity_lines": [ 12.051333, 12.096545, 12.281308, 12.389663 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.15, "volume": 52884, "typical_volume": 20318.15, "trend": 12.524048, "fair_value": 18.46493, "relative_strength": -9.76829, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.423903, "energy": 34.010082, "activity_lines": [ 12.082, 12.088182, 12.261758, 12.362811 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.0, "volume": 12683, "typical_volume": 19512.9, "trend": 12.485859, "fair_value": 18.354558, "relative_strength": -10.272655, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.961547, "energy": 37.566589, "activity_lines": [ 12.039333, 12.062545, 12.229908, 12.329001 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }