{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1530ab54-a176-4bfa-8a51-3a3e7810d6b0", "symbol": "K", "name": "Kingsmen C.M.T.I. Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.973, "architecture_energy": 39.951, "architecture_maturity": 63.434, "architecture_confidence": 90.598, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.93, "rotation_up": 16.27, "upward_expansion": 6.87, "deceleration": 43.16, "rotation_down": 54.08, "downward_expansion": 80.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.945333, 0.954364, 0.965078, 0.976129 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.95, "trend_reference": 0.992613, "distance_from_trend": -0.04293, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.082949, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.122766, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.710629, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.067256, "excess_performance": -0.259581, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04293, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054721, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.122766, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027229, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.227106, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019484, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.067256, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.521672, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41200, "relative_activity": 0.236008, "balance": 1.521672, "dry_up": 1.272126, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059919, "annualized_volatility": 0.243671, "from_high_reference": -0.275074, "from_low_reference": 0.224227 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.992613, "fair_value_reference": 1.082949, "structural_low": 0.776, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": -0.028326, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.544446, "worst_return": -0.356522, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.010309, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.043981, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.422663, "worst_return": -0.366412, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.012419, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.168147, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.301351, "worst_return": -0.402985, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 1.00791, "fair_value": 1.081055, "relative_strength": -23.337567, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.138153, "energy": 17.298856, "activity_lines": [ 0.973333, 0.973091, 0.977298, 0.988805 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.93, "volume": 314400, "typical_volume": 270470.0, "trend": 1.002373, "fair_value": 1.081624, "relative_strength": -26.800637, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.25137, "energy": 29.569676, "activity_lines": [ 0.958, 0.964364, 0.972045, 0.983778 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.93, "volume": 331500, "typical_volume": 285805.0, "trend": 0.99619, "fair_value": 1.082136, "relative_strength": -25.372323, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.450182, "energy": 38.969769, "activity_lines": [ 0.946667, 0.956909, 0.967306, 0.979109 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.95, "volume": 41200, "typical_volume": 174570.0, "trend": 0.992613, "fair_value": 1.082949, "relative_strength": -22.710629, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.973058, "energy": 39.950762, "activity_lines": [ 0.945333, 0.954364, 0.965078, 0.976129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }