{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1531719d-9c25-493a-a158-6d603d73f6af", "symbol": "603516", "name": "Beijing Tricolor Technology Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.451, "architecture_energy": 70.061, "architecture_maturity": 54.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.034, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.25, "rotation_up": 12.67, "upward_expansion": 15.03, "deceleration": 39.19, "rotation_down": 72.2, "downward_expansion": 90.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 94.517331, 102.979751, 113.722657, 123.422111 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 100.519997, "trend_reference": 141.476112, "distance_from_trend": -0.289491, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 71.763206, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.400718, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.739567, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.393362, "excess_performance": -0.350158, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.289491, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168677, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.400718, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.818784, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.327396, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.336241, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.393362, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.175808, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27907467, "relative_activity": 0.930246, "balance": 1.175808, "dry_up": 1.167564, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.198811, "annualized_volatility": 0.765431, "from_high_reference": -0.624365, "from_low_reference": 0.565244 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 141.476112, "fair_value_reference": 71.763206, "structural_low": 80.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.002664, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.012497, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 1.542384, "worst_return": -0.202376, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.159049, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.148483, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 2.371177, "worst_return": -0.40044, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.620068, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.534635, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 4.515279, "worst_return": -0.10272, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 70.300236, "relative_strength": -37.327658, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.257523, "energy": 68.285562, "activity_lines": [ 107.399333, 114.439969, 123.531039, 134.281639 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 89.059998, "volume": 43740534, "typical_volume": 29806280.9, "trend": 149.968779, "fair_value": 70.756293, "relative_strength": -37.918399, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.60172, "energy": 76.302143, "activity_lines": [ 98.527332, 109.267791, 119.535595, 130.117868 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 91.239998, "volume": 32436236, "typical_volume": 30263601.95, "trend": 145.575445, "fair_value": 71.231339, "relative_strength": -37.014188, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.009573, "energy": 78.889167, "activity_lines": [ 93.922665, 105.007312, 116.057007, 126.328914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 100.519997, "volume": 27907467, "typical_volume": 30000090.0, "trend": 141.476112, "fair_value": 71.763206, "relative_strength": -32.739567, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.450627, "energy": 70.06141, "activity_lines": [ 94.517331, 102.979751, 113.722657, 123.422111 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }