{ "ticker": { "uuid": "15327dca-8020-4e1b-a792-27d1d2f49df4", "symbol": "APEX", "name": "Amundi MSCI AC Asia Ex Japan UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 68.514, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 27.054, "architecture_energy": 26.171, "architecture_maturity": 65.76, "architecture_confidence": 77.231, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.24, "rotation_up": 18.57, "upward_expansion": 53.38, "deceleration": 93.99, "rotation_down": 35.45, "downward_expansion": 19.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 194.089335, 197.537638, 196.438716, 191.148561 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 195.229996, "trend_reference": 184.266, "distance_from_trend": 0.059501, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 140.661346, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.387943, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.717316, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.150985, "excess_performance": -0.019907, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059501, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082767, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.387943, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081489, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.017173, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126535, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.150985, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.344789, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1460, "relative_activity": 0.566407, "balance": 0.344789, "dry_up": 1.205846, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040745, "annualized_volatility": 0.218521, "from_high_reference": -0.079538, "from_low_reference": 0.374665 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 184.266, "fair_value_reference": 140.661346, "structural_low": 159.610001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.01388, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.003502, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.150992, "worst_return": -0.035403, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.062658, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.038087, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.262701, "worst_return": -0.009334, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.074631, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.047489, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.364651, "worst_return": -0.01521, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037931, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032983, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.115503, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.07199, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.079706, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044202, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008809, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.128129, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.058571, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00988, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 109.230003, "volume": 3260, "typical_volume": 2111.85, "trend": 113.886, "fair_value": 123.42891, "relative_strength": -11.938565, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper 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"fair_value": 140.140385, "relative_strength": -0.836547, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.994508, "energy": 25.720525, "activity_lines": [ 194.721338, 198.419821, 195.925717, 190.377765 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 195.229996, "volume": 1460, "typical_volume": 2577.65, "trend": 184.266, "fair_value": 140.661346, "relative_strength": -1.717316, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.054389, "energy": 26.171425, "activity_lines": [ 194.089335, 197.537638, 196.438716, 191.148561 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }