{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1535b77a-3c08-44a7-bd3d-a34febedcfa7", "symbol": "FNY", "name": "FIRST TRUST MID CAP GROWTH ALPHADEX FUND", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 81.425, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.224, "architecture_energy": 24.504, "architecture_maturity": 55.957, "architecture_confidence": 78.082, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.84, "rotation_up": 26.54, "upward_expansion": 55.43, "deceleration": 90.68, "rotation_down": 28.41, "downward_expansion": 19.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 104.254573, 104.97314, 104.076985, 101.961058 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 106.9721, "trend_reference": 99.68188, "distance_from_trend": 0.073135, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 81.266024, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.31632, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.355218, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.101329, "excess_performance": -0.086124, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073135, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046031, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.31632, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013232, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023552, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022744, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.101329, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.660484, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 129152, "relative_activity": 0.937867, "balance": 0.660484, "dry_up": 0.850891, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037449, "annualized_volatility": 0.182377, "from_high_reference": -0.036808, "from_low_reference": 0.282765 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 99.68188, "fair_value_reference": 81.266024, "structural_low": 86.6, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.033219, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.019856, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.068552, "worst_return": -0.133808, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.014895, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.000277, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.121298, "worst_return": -0.169936, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.118233, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.041496, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.176264, "worst_return": -0.233056, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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140619.4, "trend": 99.013553, "fair_value": 80.742034, "relative_strength": -1.00413, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.228367, "energy": 25.385035, "activity_lines": [ 104.342007, 105.097896, 103.35437, 101.258012 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 102.2648, "volume": 64033, "typical_volume": 134976.65, "trend": 99.326143, "fair_value": 80.9871, "relative_strength": -1.87292, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.577829, "energy": 22.608029, "activity_lines": [ 103.300233, 104.606645, 103.519865, 101.46777 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 106.9721, "volume": 129152, "typical_volume": 137708.25, "trend": 99.68188, "fair_value": 81.266024, "relative_strength": -2.355218, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.224309, "energy": 24.504496, "activity_lines": [ 104.254573, 104.97314, 104.076985, 101.961058 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }