{ "ticker": { "uuid": "154ddc38-9aa8-49c0-a9c1-985d6907533c", "symbol": "2848", "name": "Xtrackers - MSCI Korea UCITS ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.961, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 0.424, "architecture_energy": 18.293, "architecture_maturity": 63.321, "architecture_confidence": 76.682, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.76, "rotation_up": 14.32, "upward_expansion": 41.39, "deceleration": 87.83, "rotation_down": 44.44, "downward_expansion": 35.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 1659.3, 1756.045455, 1781.954762, 1697.1 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1616.0, "trend_reference": 1570.433333, "distance_from_trend": 0.029015, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 804.194933, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.009463, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 28.663212, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.370653, "excess_performance": 0.404234, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029015, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.237891, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.009463, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.581335, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.286632, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.576106, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.370653, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.075332, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7056, "relative_activity": 1.147401, "balance": 1.075332, "dry_up": 1.094023, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.143255, "annualized_volatility": 0.599935, "from_high_reference": -0.265455, "from_low_reference": 13.350477 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1570.433333, "fair_value_reference": 804.194933, "structural_low": 1125.0, "invalidation": "A 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"blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036929, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.103291, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.092182, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.445969, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.097748, "active": false }, { 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"fair_value": 783.800702, "relative_strength": 34.541985, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.318198, "energy": 19.375254, "activity_lines": [ 1792.966667, 1872.490909, 1783.254762, 1669.777419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1668.0, "volume": 3070, "typical_volume": 6793.0, "trend": 1528.683333, "fair_value": 790.485317, "relative_strength": 40.64571, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.674502, "energy": 24.619592, "activity_lines": [ 1718.366667, 1831.0, 1784.452381, 1680.374194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1724.5, "volume": 9445, "typical_volume": 6397.25, "trend": 1552.566667, "fair_value": 797.650061, "relative_strength": 38.032515, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.580811, "energy": 22.143813, "activity_lines": [ 1697.4, 1802.181818, 1789.452381, 1693.007527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1616.0, "volume": 7056, "typical_volume": 6149.55, "trend": 1570.433333, "fair_value": 804.194933, "relative_strength": 28.663212, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.423725, "energy": 18.293312, "activity_lines": [ 1659.3, 1756.045455, 1781.954762, 1697.1 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }