{ "ticker": { "uuid": "154f2096-6d83-48a9-9d97-a58a83b2899a", "symbol": "276000", "name": "Mirae Asset TIGER Synth-Morningstar Global Upstream Natural Resources(H)", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.745, "architecture_energy": 24.452, "architecture_maturity": 56.999, "architecture_confidence": 70.085, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.85, "rotation_up": 36.75, "upward_expansion": 21.22, "deceleration": 44.13, "rotation_down": 24.52, "downward_expansion": 57.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 19754.333333, 19473.272727, 19756.833333, 19957.655914 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 20035.0, "trend_reference": 20039.5, "distance_from_trend": -0.000225, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15997.90389, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.252352, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.83926, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.038352, "excess_performance": -0.191477, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000225, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045281, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.252352, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05383, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128393, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.23745, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.038352, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.006427, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6404, "relative_activity": 0.404763, "balance": 1.006427, "dry_up": 0.331667, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03396, "annualized_volatility": 0.156883, "from_high_reference": -0.072454, "from_low_reference": 0.312939 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20039.5, "fair_value_reference": 15997.90389, "structural_low": 18600.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.014975, "positive_rate": 0.705882, "directional_follow_through": 0.294118, "median_excess_return": 0.000964, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.10124, "worst_return": -0.093496, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.054721, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.018194, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.121023, "worst_return": -0.099501, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.085929, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.012264, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.312716, "worst_return": -0.023627, 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"activity_lines": [ 18979.333333, 19289.727273, 19825.595238, 19955.692473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19740.0, "volume": 4051, "typical_volume": 21153.85, "trend": 19876.0, "fair_value": 15937.867175, "relative_strength": -21.072641, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.359436, "energy": 34.341948, "activity_lines": [ 19239.0, 19306.727273, 19785.02381, 19952.268817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19880.0, "volume": 6677, "typical_volume": 17558.6, "trend": 19955.5, "fair_value": 15967.516771, "relative_strength": -18.593633, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.065454, "energy": 23.464787, "activity_lines": [ 19513.0, 19370.909091, 19761.5, 19952.526882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20035.0, "volume": 6404, "typical_volume": 15821.6, "trend": 20039.5, "fair_value": 15997.90389, "relative_strength": -12.83926, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.745434, "energy": 24.451542, "activity_lines": [ 19754.333333, 19473.272727, 19756.833333, 19957.655914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }