{ "ticker": { "uuid": "155957ef-5205-4875-b827-6c9b5b4db89f", "symbol": "HBAL", "name": "Global X Balanced Asset Allocation ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 55.982, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.381, "architecture_energy": 41.681, "architecture_maturity": 60.856, "architecture_confidence": 68.202, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.77, "rotation_up": 41.07, "upward_expansion": 68.19, "deceleration": 85.39, "rotation_down": 27.56, "downward_expansion": 18.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.672645, 18.692439, 18.531109, 18.287662 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.879999, "trend_reference": 18.011902, "distance_from_trend": 0.048196, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.367545, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.228563, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.498081, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.073859, "excess_performance": -0.046563, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048196, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027543, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.228563, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002184, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044981, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003052, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.073859, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.978295, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15900, "relative_activity": 0.805471, "balance": 0.978295, "dry_up": 0.842199, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015205, "annualized_volatility": 0.09606, "from_high_reference": -0.006839, "from_low_reference": 0.167335 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.011902, "fair_value_reference": 15.367545, "structural_low": 16.879955, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.014592, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.00696, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.063366, "worst_return": -0.048078, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.035486, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.005576, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.113323, "worst_return": -0.043951, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.061094, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.017239, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.090124, "worst_return": -0.023708, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018882, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00941, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.074417, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024897, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.080912, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"relative_strength": -4.123431, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.764032, "energy": 49.006918, "activity_lines": [ 18.649464, 18.659377, 18.421195, 18.188039 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.559999, "volume": 15600, "typical_volume": 19650.0, "trend": 17.969765, "fair_value": 15.326494, "relative_strength": -3.258744, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.964616, "energy": 37.895311, "activity_lines": [ 18.603891, 18.648716, 18.464299, 18.228937 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.879999, "volume": 15900, "typical_volume": 19740.0, "trend": 18.011902, "fair_value": 15.367545, "relative_strength": -4.498081, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.38123, "energy": 41.680993, "activity_lines": [ 18.672645, 18.692439, 18.531109, 18.287662 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }