{ "ticker": { "uuid": "155ca66d-1582-49e2-96bf-8a0a1a524f8f", "symbol": "GURU", "name": "GURU Organic Energy Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.499, "architecture_energy": 38.669, "architecture_maturity": 61.406, "architecture_confidence": 93.77, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.27, "rotation_up": 25.87, "upward_expansion": 4.84, "deceleration": 54.64, "rotation_down": 47.07, "downward_expansion": 78.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.657333, 3.683455, 3.776333, 4.028968 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.75, "trend_reference": 4.496, "distance_from_trend": -0.165925, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.82141, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.329123, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.292967, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.342105, "excess_performance": -0.462527, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.165925, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080259, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.329123, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094382, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.26293, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137254, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.342105, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.762061, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17400, "relative_activity": 0.643134, "balance": 0.762061, "dry_up": 1.291813, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111795, "annualized_volatility": 0.520961, "from_high_reference": -0.464286, "from_low_reference": 0.994681 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.496, "fair_value_reference": 2.82141, "structural_low": 3.06, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.034688, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.070793, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.503876, "worst_return": -0.362832, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.189349, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.251469, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.223881, "worst_return": -0.434716, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.270053, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.258979, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.30597, "worst_return": -0.641675, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.146341, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.372639, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.10219, "worst_return": -0.733204, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026549, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09292, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02381, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.053659, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052356, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.164634, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027778, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06044, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.668016, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.184397, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018382, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05726, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026549, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.170354, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.1, "volume": 95600, "typical_volume": 77970.0, "trend": 2.849167, "fair_value": 10.586233, "relative_strength": -33.594586, "stage": 4, "regime": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.00476, "energy": 42.585753, "activity_lines": [ 3.756667, 3.768909, 3.969095, 4.297312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.48, "volume": 22300, "typical_volume": 26315.0, "trend": 4.680333, "fair_value": 2.793077, "relative_strength": -28.432766, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.409109, "energy": 48.365103, "activity_lines": [ 3.631333, 3.716, 3.894476, 4.216774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.44, "volume": 46400, "typical_volume": 26705.0, "trend": 4.628, "fair_value": 2.797949, "relative_strength": -29.759426, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.290522, "energy": 50.237533, "activity_lines": [ 3.552667, 3.663273, 3.826286, 4.136753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.78, "volume": 53700, "typical_volume": 27365.0, "trend": 4.572667, "fair_value": 2.809231, "relative_strength": -22.903744, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.412241, "energy": 42.25115, "activity_lines": [ 3.611333, 3.677636, 3.799381, 4.082043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.75, "volume": 17400, "typical_volume": 27055.0, "trend": 4.496, "fair_value": 2.82141, "relative_strength": -26.292967, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.499075, "energy": 38.668725, "activity_lines": [ 3.657333, 3.683455, 3.776333, 4.028968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }