{ "ticker": { "uuid": "155d13e8-6a29-4c52-bebb-b2bf1a42f4e1", "symbol": "BEIJ-B", "name": "Beijer Ref AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 90.66, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.57, "architecture_energy": 32.461, "architecture_maturity": 18.07, "architecture_confidence": 52.844, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.84, "rotation_up": 49.54, "upward_expansion": 73.8, "deceleration": 62.36, "rotation_down": 20.98, "downward_expansion": 5.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 139.099997, 138.752725, 135.846495, 134.799185 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 142.699997, "trend_reference": 134.150345, "distance_from_trend": 0.063732, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 145.504681, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.019276, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.998494, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.086622, "excess_performance": 0.025127, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.063732, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027603, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.019276, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12216, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.109985, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.117647, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.086622, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.412888, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4241301, "relative_activity": 1.079662, "balance": 0.412888, "dry_up": 1.028269, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058649, "annualized_volatility": 0.326877, "from_high_reference": -0.17247, "from_low_reference": 0.176617 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 134.150345, "fair_value_reference": 145.504681, "structural_low": 122.721976, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.010781, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.031132, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.067374, "worst_return": -0.091981, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.008454, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.026375, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.178651, "worst_return": -0.080778, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.012587, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.060551, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.217113, "worst_return": -0.178027, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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145.448063, "relative_strength": -7.405382, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.865689, "energy": 54.316175, "activity_lines": [ 141.193331, 137.336362, 134.603789, 134.207864 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 136.399994, "volume": 4091964, "typical_volume": 3940591.75, "trend": 134.66985, "fair_value": 145.428256, "relative_strength": -13.482316, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.881467, "energy": 44.614198, "activity_lines": [ 140.166663, 137.732725, 134.92231, 134.297786 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 134.0, "volume": 3958460, "typical_volume": 3992805.4, "trend": 134.258468, "fair_value": 145.414889, "relative_strength": -15.510061, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.535927, "energy": 17.798795, "activity_lines": [ 137.986664, 137.485452, 134.985248, 134.25457 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 142.699997, "volume": 4241301, "typical_volume": 3928359.45, "trend": 134.150345, "fair_value": 145.504681, "relative_strength": -10.998494, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.570205, "energy": 32.460706, "activity_lines": [ 139.099997, 138.752725, 135.846495, 134.799185 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }