{ "ticker": { "uuid": "155e3c68-f0d7-48cf-ad1d-cbe403b8f739", "symbol": "301539", "name": "Zhejiang Hongxin Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.62, "architecture_energy": 48.976, "architecture_maturity": 75.964, "architecture_confidence": 89.221, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.98, "rotation_up": 26.72, "upward_expansion": 7.97, "deceleration": 60.34, "rotation_down": 47.45, "downward_expansion": 78.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.832, 13.941196, 15.109015, 16.286453 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.26, "trend_reference": 17.928124, "distance_from_trend": -0.204602, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.612032, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.272895, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.885673, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.326405, "excess_performance": -0.333805, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.204602, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098893, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.272895, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.224149, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.268857, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056845, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.326405, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.242513, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8287138, "relative_activity": 1.030563, "balance": 0.242513, "dry_up": 1.112368, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117766, "annualized_volatility": 0.373287, "from_high_reference": -0.390598, "from_low_reference": 0.154656 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.928124, "fair_value_reference": 19.612032, "structural_low": 12.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.051346, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.05691, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.014947, "worst_return": -0.170283, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.749724, "energy": 65.635731, "activity_lines": [ 14.128804, 14.819468, 16.3698, 17.516012 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.95, "volume": 9760027, "typical_volume": 8100826.35, "trend": 18.647791, "fair_value": 19.764306, "relative_strength": -27.888186, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.802839, "energy": 60.002683, "activity_lines": [ 14.043567, 14.5034, 16.02002, 17.199595 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.81, "volume": 10029573, "typical_volume": 7995139.75, "trend": 18.376458, "fair_value": 19.705371, "relative_strength": -33.306052, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.18864, "energy": 59.878953, "activity_lines": [ 13.635693, 14.075696, 15.59905, 16.822963 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.95, "volume": 7703100, "typical_volume": 8001120.1, "trend": 18.149458, "fair_value": 19.657007, "relative_strength": -25.503456, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.579754, "energy": 54.245746, "activity_lines": [ 13.708756, 13.9469, 15.324175, 16.537385 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.26, "volume": 8287138, "typical_volume": 8041367.1, "trend": 17.928124, "fair_value": 19.612032, "relative_strength": -26.885673, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.620453, "energy": 48.975708, "activity_lines": [ 13.832, 13.941196, 15.109015, 16.286453 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }