{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "156d6271-4b3c-40cf-aa05-bef71851c963",
    "symbol": "FCG",
    "name": "Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited",
    "exchange": "NZE",
    "country": "NZ",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^NZ50",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 70.995,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 1.505,
    "architecture_energy": 36.532,
    "architecture_maturity": 38.677,
    "architecture_confidence": 51.601,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 60.83,
        "rotation_up": 14.72,
        "upward_expansion": 52.27,
        "deceleration": 65.45,
        "rotation_down": 39.32,
        "downward_expansion": 43.94
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        4.247333,
        4.269455,
        4.322016,
        4.271804
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 4.25,
    "trend_reference": 4.16274,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.020962,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 2.545334,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.669722,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 4.310212,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.130864,
    "excess_performance": 0.10259,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.020962,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.051285,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.669722,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.222538,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.043102,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.166922,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.130864,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 3.557185,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 396004,
      "relative_activity": 0.438562,
      "balance": 3.557185,
      "dry_up": 0.516363,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.01629,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.230989,
      "from_high_reference": -0.12731,
      "from_low_reference": 0.469321
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 4.16274,
      "fair_value_reference": 2.545334,
      "structural_low": 3.745684,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": 0.048523,
        "positive_rate": 0.692308,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.692308,
        "median_excess_return": 0.045105,
        "regime_survival": 0.384615,
        "best_return": 0.111532,
        "worst_return": -0.049201,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.134057,
        "positive_rate": 0.857143,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.857143,
        "median_excess_return": 0.153218,
        "regime_survival": 0.285714,
        "best_return": 0.250969,
        "worst_return": -0.003195,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.261028,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.241493,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.449473,
        "worst_return": 0.130435,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.427941,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.409243,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.531307,
        "worst_return": 0.324574,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-04-05",
        "end": "2024-10-04",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.658334,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-10-11",
        "end": "2024-10-25",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.130982,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-11-01",
        "end": "2024-12-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.006945,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-12-20",
        "end": "2025-01-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.077647,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-24",
        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.055913,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-05-09",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.021978,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.026915,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-07-18",
        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.061181,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-15",
        "end": "2025-12-19",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.251151,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-12-26",
        "end": "2026-01-02",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.005068,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-01-09",
        "end": "2026-05-22",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.154811,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-06-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.006742,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.022573,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.009501,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 519520,
        "typical_volume": 1015225.0,
        "trend": 4.110433,
        "fair_value": 2.484076,
        "relative_strength": 6.582385,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 4.080294,
        "energy": 21.921757,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.258,
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          4.336419,
          4.248287
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 4.25,
        "volume": 553010,
        "typical_volume": 950705.9,
        "trend": 4.128702,
        "fair_value": 2.504452,
        "relative_strength": 5.837984,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 4.446769,
        "energy": 23.554252,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.244667,
          4.299455,
          4.333235,
          4.257291
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 4.25,
        "volume": 396489,
        "typical_volume": 922174.1,
        "trend": 4.146347,
        "fair_value": 2.524958,
        "relative_strength": 5.787293,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 3.564447,
        "energy": 27.010833,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.243333,
          4.283636,
          4.328394,
          4.265117
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 4.25,
        "volume": 396004,
        "typical_volume": 902960.7,
        "trend": 4.16274,
        "fair_value": 2.545334,
        "relative_strength": 4.310212,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 1.504693,
        "energy": 36.532418,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.247333,
          4.269455,
          4.322016,
          4.271804
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}