{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1574aa46-5f51-42fa-b6a8-820bcf38c585", "symbol": "PXLW", "name": "Pixelworks Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.206, "architecture_energy": 13.798, "architecture_maturity": 23.101, "architecture_confidence": 77.318, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.52, "rotation_up": 30.4, "upward_expansion": 47.3, "deceleration": 84.14, "rotation_down": 29.43, "downward_expansion": 26.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.154, 6.141545, 6.216738, 6.136312 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.54, "trend_reference": 6.105333, "distance_from_trend": 0.071195, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.083851, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.409952, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.608164, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.070376, "excess_performance": -0.117077, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071195, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013173, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.409952, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122761, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.186082, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.16778, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.070376, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.888057, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 108611, "relative_activity": 0.307956, "balance": 2.888057, "dry_up": 0.389153, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.142239, "annualized_volatility": 0.508998, "from_high_reference": -0.575875, "from_low_reference": 0.35124 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.105333, "fair_value_reference": 11.083851, "structural_low": 4.84, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.0107, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": 0.009245, "regime_survival": 0.473684, "best_return": 0.844595, "worst_return": -0.27546, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.048855, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.038677, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.969466, "worst_return": -0.294382, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.204678, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.2894, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.351974, "worst_return": -0.527981, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.370637, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.480289, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.291866, "worst_return": -0.432703, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.083426, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.180208, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.102357, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.428777, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.317103, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.2471, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.226847, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041221, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.100318, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.100471, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008785, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.147776, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076543, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 15.48, "volume": 2206299, "typical_volume": 951742.45, "trend": 19.568, "fair_value": 32.455385, "relative_strength": -32.469307, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": 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"relative_strength": -29.262817, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.115319, "energy": 11.564233, "activity_lines": [ 6.162667, 6.364636, 6.213262, 6.15743 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.6, "volume": 144504, "typical_volume": 358477.1, "trend": 6.154, "fair_value": 11.334364, "relative_strength": -31.161577, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.344829, "energy": 19.800379, "activity_lines": [ 5.926333, 6.212727, 6.168048, 6.120032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.09, "volume": 172044, "typical_volume": 359813.95, "trend": 6.130667, "fair_value": 11.244941, "relative_strength": -22.294606, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.721612, "energy": 16.392954, "activity_lines": [ 5.949333, 6.152273, 6.173071, 6.115903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.01, "volume": 123832, "typical_volume": 356148.15, "trend": 6.103, "fair_value": 11.155774, "relative_strength": -22.326199, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.446405, "energy": 11.655307, "activity_lines": [ 5.965667, 6.090727, 6.170381, 6.108118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.54, "volume": 108611, "typical_volume": 352683.4, "trend": 6.105333, "fair_value": 11.083851, "relative_strength": -18.608164, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.206247, "energy": 13.797809, "activity_lines": [ 6.154, 6.141545, 6.216738, 6.136312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }