{ "ticker": { "uuid": "157b2e62-b25f-4b3a-b9ca-14031f1383bb", "symbol": "OTB", "name": "On the Beach Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 32.364, "architecture_energy": 43.435, "architecture_maturity": 7.28, "architecture_confidence": 63.45, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.9, "rotation_up": 66.46, "upward_expansion": 51.48, "deceleration": 19.64, "rotation_down": 15.93, "downward_expansion": 21.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 184.72, 180.294545, 171.541422, 172.037986 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 189.8, "trend_reference": 178.048944, "distance_from_trend": 0.065999, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 186.818202, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.015961, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.505478, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.09397, "excess_performance": -0.145205, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.065999, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06768, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.015961, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066181, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135055, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.161858, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.09397, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.608099, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2482398, "relative_activity": 0.872942, "balance": 1.608099, "dry_up": 0.798608, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077316, "annualized_volatility": 0.553215, "from_high_reference": -0.36081, "from_low_reference": 0.466873 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 178.048944, "fair_value_reference": 186.818202, "structural_low": 129.390914, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.007466, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.020318, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.241892, "worst_return": -0.22696, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.128634, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.145475, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.074324, "worst_return": -0.182944, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.349401, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.375089, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.343919, "worst_return": -0.354883, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-10", "close": 178.6, "volume": 2399475, "typical_volume": 3445790.5, "trend": 183.616039, "fair_value": 184.421782, "relative_strength": -19.639576, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.016318, "energy": 20.212313, "activity_lines": [ 175.72, 166.555259, 164.908414, 171.40467 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 179.4, "volume": 2475944, "typical_volume": 3369377.9, "trend": 181.964289, "fair_value": 184.964969, "relative_strength": -18.961593, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.759816, "energy": 21.781664, "activity_lines": [ 177.546667, 169.890378, 166.063429, 171.132668 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 178.0, "volume": 1480667, "typical_volume": 3163870.9, "trend": 180.282536, "fair_value": 185.537628, "relative_strength": -19.52442, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.978678, "energy": 20.213764, "activity_lines": [ 178.28, 172.836186, 167.192663, 170.876907 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 187.6, "volume": 2645046, "typical_volume": 3064363.05, "trend": 179.120741, "fair_value": 186.189126, "relative_strength": -15.307696, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.699463, "energy": 42.50864, "activity_lines": [ 181.546667, 176.807273, 169.322784, 171.349002 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 189.8, "volume": 2482398, "typical_volume": 2843713.75, "trend": 178.048944, "fair_value": 186.818202, "relative_strength": -13.505478, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.364433, "energy": 43.434886, "activity_lines": [ 184.72, 180.294545, 171.541422, 172.037986 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }