{ "ticker": { "uuid": "158334be-bfe1-4730-a5a4-5c0ccdde7b4f", "symbol": "PPSI", "name": "Pioneer Power Solutions Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.121, "architecture_energy": 57.806, "architecture_maturity": 18.302, "architecture_confidence": 73.268, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.62, "rotation_up": 6.96, "upward_expansion": 18.28, "deceleration": 44.46, "rotation_down": 72.1, "downward_expansion": 81.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.077333, 3.371455, 3.69881, 3.68557 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.09, "trend_reference": 3.762667, "distance_from_trend": -0.178774, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.750069, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.176015, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.909675, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.258993, "excess_performance": -0.446446, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.178774, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046702, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.176015, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.258312, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.319097, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.264831, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.258993, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.883989, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 403746, "relative_activity": 0.466922, "balance": 0.883989, "dry_up": 0.350776, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.249012, "annualized_volatility": 0.932276, "from_high_reference": -0.508744, "from_low_reference": 0.314894 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.762667, "fair_value_reference": 3.750069, "structural_low": 2.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.030854, "positive_rate": 0.65625, "directional_follow_through": 0.34375, "median_excess_return": -0.019731, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.767932, "worst_return": -0.311355, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.110828, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.064196, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.867692, "worst_return": -0.262956, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.403099, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.266586, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.819571, "worst_return": -0.358932, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.152603, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.128736, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054545, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.420168, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.122105, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": 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after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.496459, "energy": 24.038497, "activity_lines": [ 3.608, 3.946, 3.902095, 3.858452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.98, "volume": 202138, "typical_volume": 864397.15, "trend": 3.888, "fair_value": 3.776914, "relative_strength": -31.100319, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.331388, "energy": 45.364442, "activity_lines": [ 3.333333, 3.726, 3.831381, 3.796323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.91, "volume": 314070, "typical_volume": 862840.15, "trend": 3.828667, "fair_value": 3.761466, "relative_strength": -32.884507, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.308632, "energy": 58.0456, "activity_lines": [ 3.142667, 3.511455, 3.755619, 3.733226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.09, "volume": 403746, "typical_volume": 864697.55, "trend": 3.762667, "fair_value": 3.750069, "relative_strength": -31.909675, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.12057, "energy": 57.805883, "activity_lines": [ 3.077333, 3.371455, 3.69881, 3.68557 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }