{ "ticker": { "uuid": "15858ad7-77c7-4f6d-ab6d-304f1634388b", "symbol": "C", "name": "Citigroup Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.88, "architecture_energy": 26.843, "architecture_maturity": 64.32, "architecture_confidence": 92.753, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.84, "rotation_up": 19.09, "upward_expansion": 53.65, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 35.04, "downward_expansion": 19.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 2306.960863, 2354.688804, 2323.027031, 2256.082671 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 2315.0, "trend_reference": 2170.642599, "distance_from_trend": 0.066504, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1468.525545, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.576411, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 10.615375, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.099965, "excess_performance": 0.154632, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066504, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063285, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.576411, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080157, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.106154, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028417, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.099965, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.211265, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4249, "relative_activity": 0.591404, "balance": 1.211265, "dry_up": 1.35178, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05, "annualized_volatility": 0.297912, "from_high_reference": -0.088579, "from_low_reference": 0.356456 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2170.642599, "fair_value_reference": 1468.525545, "structural_low": 1839.504348, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.033317, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": 0.035713, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.129863, "worst_return": -0.08619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.101423, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.073931, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.203898, "worst_return": 0.064686, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.287877, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.133026, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.390877, "worst_return": -0.011646, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033805, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.119149, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013654, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030505, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.138476, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.208884, "active": 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.513037, "energy": 30.261899, "activity_lines": [ 2346.185362, 2374.762506, 2311.508341, 2237.747756 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2295.230832, "volume": 3691, "typical_volume": 7288.7, "trend": 2166.168405, "fair_value": 1458.498996, "relative_strength": 10.011182, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.846001, "energy": 25.687937, "activity_lines": [ 2316.985946, 2364.076011, 2317.263781, 2246.480632 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2315.0, "volume": 4249, "typical_volume": 7184.6, "trend": 2170.642599, "fair_value": 1468.525545, "relative_strength": 10.615375, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.88025, "energy": 26.842885, "activity_lines": [ 2306.960863, 2354.688804, 2323.027031, 2256.082671 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }