{ "ticker": { "uuid": "15889497-0319-4808-ab7d-569a8cb4d5ce", "symbol": "SPIP", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR PORTFOLIO TIPS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 61.556, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.414, "architecture_energy": 72.619, "architecture_maturity": 11.107, "architecture_confidence": 85.703, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.66, "rotation_up": 10.98, "upward_expansion": 16.73, "deceleration": 37.82, "rotation_down": 73.27, "downward_expansion": 92.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.068006, 25.157784, 25.287306, 25.361965 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 25.09, "trend_reference": 25.442133, "distance_from_trend": -0.013841, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.291473, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.032873, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.194966, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.017546, "excess_performance": -0.143171, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013841, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002379, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.032873, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027595, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12195, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018836, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.017546, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.892636, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1758065, "relative_activity": 1.05875, "balance": 0.892636, "dry_up": 0.950834, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007878, "annualized_volatility": 0.03908, "from_high_reference": -0.0298, "from_low_reference": 0.00599 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.442133, "fair_value_reference": 24.291473, "structural_low": 24.952832, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.003103, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.005944, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.027177, "worst_return": -0.03807, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.002315, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.013853, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.021496, "worst_return": -0.071492, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.007748, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019344, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.040775, "worst_return": -0.053588, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-10", "close": 25.151264, "volume": 1543298, "typical_volume": 1613051.6, "trend": 25.484307, "fair_value": 24.235948, "relative_strength": -11.069816, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.26725, "energy": 62.722638, "activity_lines": [ 25.287338, 25.345547, 25.426467, 25.464893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.181029, "volume": 1535411, "typical_volume": 1667317.3, "trend": 25.478272, "fair_value": 24.249317, "relative_strength": -9.280553, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.523243, "energy": 66.734246, "activity_lines": [ 25.235172, 25.308764, 25.397537, 25.445327 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.00244, "volume": 1722698, "typical_volume": 1708612.65, "trend": 25.46498, "fair_value": 24.262231, "relative_strength": -9.126235, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.919055, "energy": 80.313119, "activity_lines": [ 25.140206, 25.246323, 25.35465, 25.414628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.012361, "volume": 1299300, "typical_volume": 1676654.05, "trend": 25.453648, "fair_value": 24.276459, "relative_strength": -9.738362, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.958662, "energy": 79.784547, "activity_lines": [ 25.07586, 25.19219, 25.316051, 25.385427 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.09, "volume": 1758065, "typical_volume": 1660509.95, "trend": 25.442133, "fair_value": 24.291473, "relative_strength": -12.194966, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.41411, "energy": 72.618734, "activity_lines": [ 25.068006, 25.157784, 25.287306, 25.361965 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }