{ "ticker": { "uuid": "158b3a70-f979-440b-b3a2-37ad918098b6", "symbol": "ATS", "name": "ATS Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -84.125, "architecture_energy": 72.212, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.872, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.7, "rotation_up": 11.68, "upward_expansion": 14.38, "deceleration": 38.42, "rotation_down": 72.11, "downward_expansion": 87.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.132, 26.268545, 28.173619, 28.906387 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21.13, "trend_reference": 29.626, "distance_from_trend": -0.286775, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 31.376699, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.32657, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.012733, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.292838, "excess_performance": -0.418463, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.286775, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002111, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.32657, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.405939, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.340127, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.424057, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.292838, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.526022, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2127261, "relative_activity": 2.514111, "balance": 0.526022, "dry_up": 1.252518, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.150806, "annualized_volatility": 0.561155, "from_high_reference": -0.410106, "from_low_reference": 0.104259 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.626, "fair_value_reference": 31.376699, "structural_low": 19.135, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.01508, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": 0.001169, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.356041, "worst_return": -0.132302, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.161183, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.095765, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.382553, "worst_return": -0.226013, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.011363, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.14643, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.23887, "worst_return": -0.168857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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698639, "typical_volume": 814190.6, "trend": 29.903333, "fair_value": 31.615801, "relative_strength": -14.824838, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.043356, "energy": 43.371792, "activity_lines": [ 27.309333, 27.715455, 29.237429, 29.642839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.24, "volume": 724310, "typical_volume": 795150.3, "trend": 29.881667, "fair_value": 31.520096, "relative_strength": -12.650129, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.02191, "energy": 39.508246, "activity_lines": [ 27.213333, 27.483455, 28.995714, 29.471011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.13, "volume": 2127261, "typical_volume": 846128.6, "trend": 29.626, "fair_value": 31.376699, "relative_strength": -34.012733, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.12546, "energy": 72.211591, "activity_lines": [ 25.132, 26.268545, 28.173619, 28.906387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }