{ "ticker": { "uuid": "158c9f5d-249a-45eb-ba7f-e3b7af84f571", "symbol": "8213", "name": "Taiwan Printed Circuit Board Techvest Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 67.334, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.521, "architecture_energy": 62.547, "architecture_maturity": 4.85, "architecture_confidence": 86.111, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.68, "rotation_up": 10.88, "upward_expansion": 13.31, "deceleration": 38.57, "rotation_down": 70.22, "downward_expansion": 88.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.364, 32.112644, 33.584858, 33.914537 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 33.0, "trend_reference": 34.219129, "distance_from_trend": -0.035627, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.446691, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.041998, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.535562, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.021795, "excess_performance": -0.463167, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.035627, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008284, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.041998, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082584, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.305356, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053572, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.021795, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.881112, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3732512, "relative_activity": 0.791278, "balance": 0.881112, "dry_up": 0.701358, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075932, "annualized_volatility": 0.322948, "from_high_reference": -0.219446, "from_low_reference": 0.174377 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.219129, "fair_value_reference": 34.446691, "structural_low": 28.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.005656, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.020402, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.096386, "worst_return": -0.164029, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.034606, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.013823, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.181799, "worst_return": -0.102012, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.059251, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.113336, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.033898, "worst_return": -0.074182, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -33.443998, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.081339, "energy": 17.658855, "activity_lines": [ 34.279028, 35.07433, 35.142231, 34.885055 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.659998, "volume": 3436247, "typical_volume": 4969798.9, "trend": 34.309594, "fair_value": 34.646527, "relative_strength": -31.351437, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.341607, "energy": 34.943403, "activity_lines": [ 33.300913, 34.351275, 34.826918, 34.713699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.450001, "volume": 3203042, "typical_volume": 4867030.85, "trend": 34.292941, "fair_value": 34.605207, "relative_strength": -32.696043, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.769794, "energy": 52.251428, "activity_lines": [ 32.461936, 33.681297, 34.518724, 34.529209 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.9, "volume": 4724303, "typical_volume": 4800022.55, "trend": 34.239101, "fair_value": 34.547589, "relative_strength": -34.553017, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -49.186375, "energy": 63.957546, "activity_lines": [ 31.40343, 32.813171, 34.085744, 34.245793 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.299999, "volume": 1573556, "typical_volume": 4637390.95, "trend": 34.195376, "fair_value": 34.482702, "relative_strength": -34.589752, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.18014, "energy": 73.45991, "activity_lines": [ 30.778987, 32.150685, 33.702917, 33.991658 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 33.0, "volume": 3732512, "typical_volume": 4717067.75, "trend": 34.219129, "fair_value": 34.446691, "relative_strength": -30.535562, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.520592, "energy": 62.547335, "activity_lines": [ 31.364, 32.112644, 33.584858, 33.914537 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }