{ "ticker": { "uuid": "15932bb2-1211-495b-b9a7-0dac032dcebf", "symbol": "HIES", "name": "HSBC MSCI Emerging Markets Islamic Screened Capped UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 19.929, "architecture_energy": 27.429, "architecture_maturity": 67.699, "architecture_confidence": 92.043, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.15, "rotation_up": 16.81, "upward_expansion": 52.66, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 42.12, "downward_expansion": 20.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.981333, 25.046818, 25.013148, 23.781247 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 23.924999, "trend_reference": 22.0764, "distance_from_trend": 0.083736, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.891254, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.606648, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 17.726364, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.326514, "excess_performance": 0.273202, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.083736, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.182314, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.606648, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.199092, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.177264, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.377741, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.326514, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.89709, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32556, "relative_activity": 0.800761, "balance": 0.89709, "dry_up": 1.115262, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078868, "annualized_volatility": 0.392321, "from_high_reference": -0.166376, "from_low_reference": 0.813049 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.0764, "fair_value_reference": 14.891254, "structural_low": 17.148001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.023327, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.013402, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.211021, "worst_return": -0.037564, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.331865, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.275475, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.507768, "worst_return": -0.06471, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.376983, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.324878, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.808259, "worst_return": -0.054292, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060978, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.027411, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022244, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037628, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.126475, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067201, 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"activity_lines": [ 27.333667, 26.744364, 24.43801, 22.805411 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 26.200001, "volume": 35395, "typical_volume": 44214.65, "trend": 21.0272, "fair_value": 14.593562, "relative_strength": 39.888493, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.795626, "energy": 63.250683, "activity_lines": [ 27.028334, 26.794273, 24.784695, 23.163105 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.825001, "volume": 53728, "typical_volume": 43505.8, "trend": 21.310833, "fair_value": 14.668466, "relative_strength": 25.927207, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.870453, "energy": 40.728876, "activity_lines": [ 25.900667, 26.33, 24.872762, 23.343609 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.235001, "volume": 31148, "typical_volume": 39967.45, "trend": 21.606133, "fair_value": 14.742921, "relative_strength": 26.263365, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.567472, "energy": 28.142012, "activity_lines": [ 25.106001, 25.959273, 24.982877, 23.532265 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.385, "volume": 63938, "typical_volume": 40258.55, "trend": 21.844633, "fair_value": 14.814735, "relative_strength": 18.862618, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.610238, "energy": 26.994596, "activity_lines": [ 24.314667, 25.437273, 24.984205, 23.64703 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.924999, "volume": 32556, "typical_volume": 40656.35, "trend": 22.0764, "fair_value": 14.891254, "relative_strength": 17.726364, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.929456, "energy": 27.428522, "activity_lines": [ 23.981333, 25.046818, 25.013148, 23.781247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }