{ "ticker": { "uuid": "1595557b-8d10-45b0-8ba9-b4a863eb3084", "symbol": "601038", "name": "First Tractor Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 55.408, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 15.37, "architecture_energy": 27.91, "architecture_maturity": 73.672, "architecture_confidence": 56.369, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.72, "rotation_up": 57.96, "upward_expansion": 33.84, "deceleration": 47.01, "rotation_down": 14.18, "downward_expansion": 20.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.205333, 12.56428, 12.470625, 12.710827 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.2, "trend_reference": 13.123178, "distance_from_trend": 0.005854, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.708803, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.037115, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.907777, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.120586, "excess_performance": -0.077382, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005854, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030982, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.037115, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018694, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.009078, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094546, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.120586, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.653754, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44815176, "relative_activity": 1.421351, "balance": 0.653754, "dry_up": 1.727147, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082578, "annualized_volatility": 0.472449, "from_high_reference": -0.166667, "from_low_reference": 0.294118 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.123178, "fair_value_reference": 13.708803, "structural_low": 10.2, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.009918, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.016557, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.348974, "worst_return": -0.185919, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.033293, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.060183, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.225597, "worst_return": -0.186949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.050546, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.071619, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.129068, "worst_return": -0.162952, "sufficient": true 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016924, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022075, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02098, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018648, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006902, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018842, "active": false 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.680604, "energy": 43.960156, "activity_lines": [ 11.641333, 11.717157, 12.180654, 12.629614 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.8, "volume": 84686126, "typical_volume": 34860714.45, "trend": 13.168511, "fair_value": 13.681496, "relative_strength": 8.652677, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.894396, "energy": 14.836269, "activity_lines": [ 12.420667, 12.053118, 12.292438, 12.669796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.76, "volume": 54486089, "typical_volume": 33220567.45, "trend": 13.155511, "fair_value": 13.69728, "relative_strength": 7.933782, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.487349, "energy": 20.019679, "activity_lines": [ 13.024, 12.371354, 12.404698, 12.707957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.2, "volume": 44815176, "typical_volume": 31529988.2, "trend": 13.123178, "fair_value": 13.708803, "relative_strength": 0.907777, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.369575, "energy": 27.909633, "activity_lines": [ 13.205333, 12.56428, 12.470625, 12.710827 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }