{ "ticker": { "uuid": "159634fe-d855-4b05-b9d4-f4aa7da0454e", "symbol": "ECOW", "name": "PACER EMERGING MARKETS CASH COWS 100 ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.179, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.162, "architecture_energy": 35.885, "architecture_maturity": 20.258, "architecture_confidence": 57.271, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.84, "rotation_up": 60.73, "upward_expansion": 71.85, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 12.73, "downward_expansion": 12.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.4617, 27.225316, 27.245052, 27.155018 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 27.7464, "trend_reference": 26.9847, "distance_from_trend": 0.028227, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.871358, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.329401, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.048484, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.03458, "excess_performance": -0.152874, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028227, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035019, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.329401, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090836, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.050485, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036089, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.03458, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.722635, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 89005, "relative_activity": 0.385053, "balance": 0.722635, "dry_up": 0.478796, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028598, "annualized_volatility": 0.143297, "from_high_reference": -0.057212, "from_low_reference": 0.260144 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.9847, "fair_value_reference": 20.871358, "structural_low": 25.501, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.003824, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.00992, "regime_survival": 0.611111, "best_return": 0.062612, "worst_return": -0.064881, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.014113, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.036406, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.102012, "worst_return": -0.086059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.037231, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.091053, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.118712, "worst_return": -0.021237, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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26.996266, 27.131127, 27.02696 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.1407, "volume": 94375, "typical_volume": 250671.25, "trend": 26.795096, "fair_value": 20.734629, "relative_strength": -1.799577, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.175527, "energy": 13.746321, "activity_lines": [ 27.085553, 27.010742, 27.144034, 27.05494 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.4929, "volume": 131658, "typical_volume": 236072.05, "trend": 26.892993, "fair_value": 20.801602, "relative_strength": -1.136344, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.090321, "energy": 24.166636, "activity_lines": [ 27.262973, 27.096351, 27.186331, 27.09996 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.7464, "volume": 89005, "typical_volume": 231150.2, "trend": 26.9847, "fair_value": 20.871358, "relative_strength": -5.048484, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.162312, "energy": 35.885345, "activity_lines": [ 27.4617, 27.225316, 27.245052, 27.155018 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }