{ "ticker": { "uuid": "159adf4f-6ac8-42a2-8efa-e43f7d185bfb", "symbol": "5521", "name": "Kung Sing Engineering Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.462, "architecture_energy": 38.616, "architecture_maturity": 98.687, "architecture_confidence": 79.615, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.21, "rotation_up": 27.88, "upward_expansion": 22.12, "deceleration": 46.97, "rotation_down": 39.7, "downward_expansion": 63.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.495333, 10.376857, 10.420809, 11.243229 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.95, "trend_reference": 13.210067, "distance_from_trend": -0.171087, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.453406, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.120722, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -45.494306, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.458037, "excess_performance": -0.803769, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.171087, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188002, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.120722, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01541, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.454943, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061954, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.458037, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.438662, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14251191, "relative_activity": 0.714242, "balance": 1.438662, "dry_up": 0.682694, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060612, "annualized_volatility": 0.719913, "from_high_reference": -0.603206, "from_low_reference": 0.152632 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.210067, "fair_value_reference": 12.453406, "structural_low": 9.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.010718, "positive_rate": 0.392857, "directional_follow_through": 0.607143, "median_excess_return": -0.006009, "regime_survival": 0.892857, "best_return": 0.160976, "worst_return": -0.121175, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.023155, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.041389, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.059179, "worst_return": -0.108141, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.024602, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.012333, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.140496, "worst_return": -0.160389, "sufficient": true }, 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004348, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.122807, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130435, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029661, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", 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-49.501172, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.325637, "energy": 60.248721, "activity_lines": [ 10.030667, 10.170921, 10.41372, 11.64291 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 10.7, "volume": 12527784, "typical_volume": 20263937.05, "trend": 13.702519, "fair_value": 12.428197, "relative_strength": -48.042326, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.241583, "energy": 53.965931, "activity_lines": [ 10.224667, 10.257492, 10.40033, 11.420811 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 10.95, "volume": 14251191, "typical_volume": 19952893.7, "trend": 13.210067, "fair_value": 12.453406, "relative_strength": -45.494306, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.461989, "energy": 38.615513, "activity_lines": [ 10.495333, 10.376857, 10.420809, 11.243229 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }