{ "ticker": { "uuid": "15a116a5-9c89-4b67-aef0-c0fcdc9a347a", "symbol": "C13", "name": "CH Offshore Ltd.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.742, "architecture_energy": 43.531, "architecture_maturity": 17.18, "architecture_confidence": 94.179, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.4, "rotation_up": 18.57, "upward_expansion": 5.67, "deceleration": 47.65, "rotation_down": 56.82, "downward_expansion": 79.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.012667, 0.012764, 0.013171, 0.013477 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.013, "trend_reference": 0.0139, "distance_from_trend": -0.064748, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.038226, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.659922, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.282592, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.133333, "excess_performance": -0.288168, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.064748, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052273, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.659922, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038397, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.252826, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01831, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.133333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.313297, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2600400, "relative_activity": 0.538975, "balance": 0.313297, "dry_up": 0.560044, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071006, "annualized_volatility": 0.392376, "from_high_reference": -0.277778, "from_low_reference": 0.083333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0139, "fair_value_reference": 0.038226, "structural_low": 0.012, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.031512, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.511628, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.055754, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.4, "worst_return": -0.65, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.02551, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.121125, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.837209, "worst_return": -0.708333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.03384, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.076313, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.733333, "worst_return": -0.6875, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-05-26", "end": "2023-06-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.191176, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-06-09", "end": "2023-08-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.298246, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-08-18", "end": "2023-09-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-09-08", "end": "2023-09-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.102564, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2023-11-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027778, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.275362, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.238806, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.078431, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.176471, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.088, "volume": 54300, "typical_volume": 176200.0, "trend": 0.063333, "fair_value": 0.053513, "relative_strength": 49.236963, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 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"energy": 59.158628, "activity_lines": [ 0.013, 0.013345, 0.013629, 0.013903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.012, "volume": 5259600, "typical_volume": 7796365.0, "trend": 0.0142, "fair_value": 0.0394, "relative_strength": -30.787419, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.315612, "energy": 75.584847, "activity_lines": [ 0.0126, 0.013073, 0.013448, 0.013755 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.012, "volume": 1651400, "typical_volume": 5099760.0, "trend": 0.0141, "fair_value": 0.038983, "relative_strength": -30.887538, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.164251, "energy": 75.013139, "activity_lines": [ 0.012333, 0.012818, 0.013281, 0.013613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.013, "volume": 1296800, "typical_volume": 4913440.0, "trend": 0.014, "fair_value": 0.038618, "relative_strength": -25.058712, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.237402, "energy": 60.282202, "activity_lines": [ 0.012533, 0.012782, 0.013224, 0.013542 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.013, "volume": 2600400, "typical_volume": 4824710.0, "trend": 0.0139, "fair_value": 0.038226, "relative_strength": -25.282592, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.742433, "energy": 43.53111, "activity_lines": [ 0.012667, 0.012764, 0.013171, 0.013477 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }