{ "ticker": { "uuid": "15a2bd0d-7ddd-47d7-8bb7-d403755c9494", "symbol": "BOTT", "name": "THEMES HUMANOID ROBOTICS ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.858, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.595, "architecture_energy": 77.055, "architecture_maturity": 15.395, "architecture_confidence": 84.526, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.01, "rotation_up": 8.99, "upward_expansion": 17.83, "deceleration": 37.24, "rotation_down": 77.07, "downward_expansion": 93.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.763073, 44.69722, 47.846623, 49.165295 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 45.1761, "trend_reference": 51.18777, "distance_from_trend": -0.117443, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.550122, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.270772, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.013137, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.200565, "excess_performance": -0.388018, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.117443, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042563, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.270772, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.373038, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140131, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.268237, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.200565, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.518066, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 116500, "relative_activity": 0.889867, "balance": 0.518066, "dry_up": 0.855212, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092365, "annualized_volatility": 0.415804, "from_high_reference": -0.355272, "from_low_reference": 0.464159 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.18777, "fair_value_reference": 35.550122, "structural_low": 39.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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"regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.14689, "energy": 48.664096, "activity_lines": [ 48.524347, 50.17018, 50.965143, 51.554359 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 41.82, "volume": 128804, "typical_volume": 131725.85, "trend": 51.33585, "fair_value": 35.382891, "relative_strength": -17.044475, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.610208, "energy": 78.569831, "activity_lines": [ 46.093287, 48.371631, 50.064992, 50.94367 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.8847, "volume": 92155, "typical_volume": 127701.5, "trend": 51.272507, "fair_value": 35.421042, "relative_strength": -19.617042, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.984503, "energy": 84.255136, "activity_lines": [ 43.57046, 46.476664, 49.059241, 50.204886 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.1556, "volume": 110393, "typical_volume": 128888.5, "trend": 51.17285, "fair_value": 35.469231, "relative_strength": -17.565626, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.510159, "energy": 83.655835, "activity_lines": [ 42.323453, 45.091805, 48.23901, 49.552182 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.1761, "volume": 116500, "typical_volume": 130918.4, "trend": 51.18777, "fair_value": 35.550122, "relative_strength": -14.013137, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.595309, "energy": 77.055432, "activity_lines": [ 42.763073, 44.69722, 47.846623, 49.165295 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }